A strengthening super El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts pointing toward peak values near +3°C by late 2026, represents the dominant near-term driver lifting September global mean surface temperatures. This Pacific warming, combined with a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole and elevated baseline greenhouse gas forcing, pushes monthly anomalies toward the 1.35–1.49°C range above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with 2026 annual projections of 1.47–1.51°C. Model spread in ENSO intensification timing, atmospheric response lags, and internal variability such as North Atlantic temperatures introduce uncertainty across the closely matched market bins, with new NOAA and WMO updates expected to refine short-term forecasts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоСентябрь 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)
Сентябрь 2026 Повышение температуры (ºC)
<1,30ºC 50%
1,30–1,34ºC 50%
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 50%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
9 окт. 2026 г.
<1,30ºC
50%
1,30–1,34ºC
50%
1,35–1,39ºC
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
50%
1,45–1,49ºC
50%
>1,49ºC
50%
<1,30ºC 50%
1,30–1,34ºC 50%
1,35–1,39ºC 50%
1,40–1,44ºC 50%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
9 окт. 2026 г.
<1,30ºC
$0 Объем
50%
1,30–1,34ºC
$0 Объем
50%
1,35–1,39ºC
$0 Объем
50%
1,40–1,44ºC
$0 Объем
50%
1,45–1,49ºC
$0 Объем
50%
>1,49ºC
$0 Объем
50%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening super El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts pointing toward peak values near +3°C by late 2026, represents the dominant near-term driver lifting September global mean surface temperatures. This Pacific warming, combined with a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole and elevated baseline greenhouse gas forcing, pushes monthly anomalies toward the 1.35–1.49°C range above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with 2026 annual projections of 1.47–1.51°C. Model spread in ENSO intensification timing, atmospheric response lags, and internal variability such as North Atlantic temperatures introduce uncertainty across the closely matched market bins, with new NOAA and WMO updates expected to refine short-term forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Открытие рынка: Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ET
Объем
$0Дата окончания
10 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.A strengthening super El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts pointing toward peak values near +3°C by late 2026, represents the dominant near-term driver lifting September global mean surface temperatures. This Pacific warming, combined with a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole and elevated baseline greenhouse gas forcing, pushes monthly anomalies toward the 1.35–1.49°C range above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with 2026 annual projections of 1.47–1.51°C. Model spread in ENSO intensification timing, atmospheric response lags, and internal variability such as North Atlantic temperatures introduce uncertainty across the closely matched market bins, with new NOAA and WMO updates expected to refine short-term forecasts.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for September 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for September 2026 is later revised.
The brackets are mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive: each range is inclusive of both of its stated endpoints, and the reported anomaly (to the nearest 0.01ºC) falls within exactly one bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Sep" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by November 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
Объем
$0Дата окончания
10 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 31, 2026, 9:36 AM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txtКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...A strengthening super El Niño event, with Niño 3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies already exceeding +2°C and multi-model forecasts pointing toward peak values near +3°C by late 2026, represents the dominant near-term driver lifting September global mean surface temperatures. This Pacific warming, combined with a developing positive Indian Ocean Dipole and elevated baseline greenhouse gas forcing, pushes monthly anomalies toward the 1.35–1.49°C range above the 1850–1900 baseline, consistent with 2026 annual projections of 1.47–1.51°C. Model spread in ENSO intensification timing, atmospheric response lags, and internal variability such as North Atlantic temperatures introduce uncertainty across the closely matched market bins, with new NOAA and WMO updates expected to refine short-term forecasts.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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