Favorable environmental conditions, including sea surface temperatures of 28–29°C and forecast reductions in vertical wind shear, are driving National Hurricane Center guidance for rapid intensification of Tropical Storm Lowell. As of the latest observations on August 31, 2026, Lowell had strengthened to 55 knots with improved low-level structure evident in microwave imagery, prompting upward revisions to intensity estimates. Model consensus, including HAFS runs, projects the system reaching sustained hurricane-force winds (64+ knots on the Saffir-Simpson scale) within 24–48 hours, with potential for category 3 status thereafter. Trader sentiment at 72.5% implied probability for "Yes" reflects this strong but not certain outlook, tempered by uncertainties around mid-level dry air and possible interaction with nearby Hurricane Karina that could increase shear later in the period. New forecast updates from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоУсилится ли тропический шторм Лоуэлл до урагана?
Усилится ли тропический шторм Лоуэлл до урагана?
Да
99% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
8 сент. 2026 г.
Да
99% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
8 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Favorable environmental conditions, including sea surface temperatures of 28–29°C and forecast reductions in vertical wind shear, are driving National Hurricane Center guidance for rapid intensification of Tropical Storm Lowell. As of the latest observations on August 31, 2026, Lowell had strengthened to 55 knots with improved low-level structure evident in microwave imagery, prompting upward revisions to intensity estimates. Model consensus, including HAFS runs, projects the system reaching sustained hurricane-force winds (64+ knots on the Saffir-Simpson scale) within 24–48 hours, with potential for category 3 status thereafter. Trader sentiment at 72.5% implied probability for "Yes" reflects this strong but not certain outlook, tempered by uncertainties around mid-level dry air and possible interaction with nearby Hurricane Karina that could increase shear later in the period. New forecast updates from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Aug 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ET
Объем
$3,964Дата окончания
9 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".Favorable environmental conditions, including sea surface temperatures of 28–29°C and forecast reductions in vertical wind shear, are driving National Hurricane Center guidance for rapid intensification of Tropical Storm Lowell. As of the latest observations on August 31, 2026, Lowell had strengthened to 55 knots with improved low-level structure evident in microwave imagery, prompting upward revisions to intensity estimates. Model consensus, including HAFS runs, projects the system reaching sustained hurricane-force winds (64+ knots on the Saffir-Simpson scale) within 24–48 hours, with potential for category 3 status thereafter. Trader sentiment at 72.5% implied probability for "Yes" reflects this strong but not certain outlook, tempered by uncertainties around mid-level dry air and possible interaction with nearby Hurricane Karina that could increase shear later in the period. New forecast updates from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Lowell reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Lowell reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). If Lowell is located outside the National Hurricane Center's area of responsibility, the maximum sustained wind speed reported by the responsible Regional Specialized Meteorological Center will be used.
This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Lowell does not reach hurricane strength by September 8, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$3,964Дата окончания
9 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 5:18 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...Favorable environmental conditions, including sea surface temperatures of 28–29°C and forecast reductions in vertical wind shear, are driving National Hurricane Center guidance for rapid intensification of Tropical Storm Lowell. As of the latest observations on August 31, 2026, Lowell had strengthened to 55 knots with improved low-level structure evident in microwave imagery, prompting upward revisions to intensity estimates. Model consensus, including HAFS runs, projects the system reaching sustained hurricane-force winds (64+ knots on the Saffir-Simpson scale) within 24–48 hours, with potential for category 3 status thereafter. Trader sentiment at 72.5% implied probability for "Yes" reflects this strong but not certain outlook, tempered by uncertainties around mid-level dry air and possible interaction with nearby Hurricane Karina that could increase shear later in the period. New forecast updates from the Central Pacific Hurricane Center will provide the next key data points for resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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