The remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly have already lost their closed circulation and weakened into an open tropical wave east of the Leeward Islands, with maximum sustained winds holding near 35 knots. Increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, fast westward motion near 22–25 knots, and dry air aloft have created persistently unfavorable conditions that prevent reorganization or intensification. Official National Hurricane Center guidance shows the system dissipating within the next day or two, well short of the 64-knot threshold for hurricane strength. While a slim chance of brief regeneration exists in some global models, the consensus points to continued weakening and no realistic path to hurricane status before the remnants reach the Caribbean.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоУсилится ли тропический шторм «Долли» до урагана?
Усилится ли тропический шторм «Долли» до урагана?
Да
2% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 сент. 2026 г.
Да
2% вероятность
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
3 сент. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".The remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly have already lost their closed circulation and weakened into an open tropical wave east of the Leeward Islands, with maximum sustained winds holding near 35 knots. Increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, fast westward motion near 22–25 knots, and dry air aloft have created persistently unfavorable conditions that prevent reorganization or intensification. Official National Hurricane Center guidance shows the system dissipating within the next day or two, well short of the 64-knot threshold for hurricane strength. While a slim chance of brief regeneration exists in some global models, the consensus points to continued weakening and no realistic path to hurricane status before the remnants reach the Caribbean.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Открытие рынка: Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
Объем
$725Дата окончания
4 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".The remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly have already lost their closed circulation and weakened into an open tropical wave east of the Leeward Islands, with maximum sustained winds holding near 35 knots. Increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, fast westward motion near 22–25 knots, and dry air aloft have created persistently unfavorable conditions that prevent reorganization or intensification. Official National Hurricane Center guidance shows the system dissipating within the next day or two, well short of the 64-knot threshold for hurricane strength. While a slim chance of brief regeneration exists in some global models, the consensus points to continued weakening and no realistic path to hurricane status before the remnants reach the Caribbean.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Tropical Storm Dolly reaches hurricane strength at any point between market creation and September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Dolly reaches hurricane strength if it attains a maximum sustained wind speed (1-minute average) of at least 74 mph, corresponding to Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, as reported by the National Hurricane Center. Reaching hurricane strength at any single advisory during the market's timeframe is sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of the storm's intensity at other times.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the operational advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/). This market will resolve based on the operational advisory data issued while the storm is active. Any revisions to the storm's peak intensity or category published later in a post-storm best-track report or Tropical Cyclone Report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If Dolly does not reach hurricane strength by September 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or dissipates before reaching hurricane strength, this market will resolve to "No".
Объем
$725Дата окончания
4 сент. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 27, 2026, 2:37 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Кто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly have already lost their closed circulation and weakened into an open tropical wave east of the Leeward Islands, with maximum sustained winds holding near 35 knots. Increasing southwesterly wind shear from an upper-level trough, fast westward motion near 22–25 knots, and dry air aloft have created persistently unfavorable conditions that prevent reorganization or intensification. Official National Hurricane Center guidance shows the system dissipating within the next day or two, well short of the 64-knot threshold for hurricane strength. While a slim chance of brief regeneration exists in some global models, the consensus points to continued weakening and no realistic path to hurricane status before the remnants reach the Caribbean.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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