A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.5°C and models projecting a peak near +3–4°C by late 2026, supplies the dominant near-term boost to September temperatures alongside record ocean heat content and sustained anthropogenic forcing. This positions the month for a strong chance of ranking first or second warmest on record, as the lagged global response begins elevating land and sea surface anomalies relative to the 2023–2024 benchmarks, though exact placement hinges on how closely September tracks the upper end of current model ensembles versus any temporary moderation from internal variability. Official agencies note the event’s rapid intensification since spring, with virtually all forecasts maintaining very strong conditions through autumn, while historical analogs show strong El Niño Septembers often finishing among the top two or three. Traders’ tight 58% odds on first or second reflect this consensus tempered by recognition that September precedes the full seasonal peak and that minor forecast revisions could shift the final ranking.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено1, 2 или 3 сентября 2026 года - самые жаркие за всю историю наблюдений?
1, 2 или 3 сентября 2026 года - самые жаркие за всю историю наблюдений?
Самый тёплый 62%
Второй самый жаркий 61%
Третий по жаре 22%
Четвертое или ниже 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
Самый тёплый
62%
Второй самый жаркий
61%
Третий по жаре
22%
Четвертое или ниже
13%
Самый тёплый 62%
Второй самый жаркий 61%
Третий по жаре 22%
Четвертое или ниже 13%
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
30 сент. 2026 г.
Самый тёплый
$0 Объем
62%
Второй самый жаркий
$0 Объем
61%
Третий по жаре
$0 Объем
22%
Четвертое или ниже
$250 Объем
13%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.5°C and models projecting a peak near +3–4°C by late 2026, supplies the dominant near-term boost to September temperatures alongside record ocean heat content and sustained anthropogenic forcing. This positions the month for a strong chance of ranking first or second warmest on record, as the lagged global response begins elevating land and sea surface anomalies relative to the 2023–2024 benchmarks, though exact placement hinges on how closely September tracks the upper end of current model ensembles versus any temporary moderation from internal variability. Official agencies note the event’s rapid intensification since spring, with virtually all forecasts maintaining very strong conditions through autumn, while historical analogs show strong El Niño Septembers often finishing among the top two or three. Traders’ tight 58% odds on first or second reflect this consensus tempered by recognition that September precedes the full seasonal peak and that minor forecast revisions could shift the final ranking.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Открытие рынка: Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Объем
$250Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.5°C and models projecting a peak near +3–4°C by late 2026, supplies the dominant near-term boost to September temperatures alongside record ocean heat content and sustained anthropogenic forcing. This positions the month for a strong chance of ranking first or second warmest on record, as the lagged global response begins elevating land and sea surface anomalies relative to the 2023–2024 benchmarks, though exact placement hinges on how closely September tracks the upper end of current model ensembles versus any temporary moderation from internal variability. Official agencies note the event’s rapid intensification since spring, with virtually all forecasts maintaining very strong conditions through autumn, while historical analogs show strong El Niño Septembers often finishing among the top two or three. Traders’ tight 58% odds on first or second reflect this consensus tempered by recognition that September precedes the full seasonal peak and that minor forecast revisions could shift the final ranking.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for September 2026 versus the data points available for all other Septembers on record.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If September 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column for the relevant month (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for September 2026 is provided by NASA by the last day of the following month, 11:59:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Объем
$250Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Aug 28, 2026, 11:14 AM ETКто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...A developing super El Niño, with Niño 3.4 anomalies already exceeding +2.5°C and models projecting a peak near +3–4°C by late 2026, supplies the dominant near-term boost to September temperatures alongside record ocean heat content and sustained anthropogenic forcing. This positions the month for a strong chance of ranking first or second warmest on record, as the lagged global response begins elevating land and sea surface anomalies relative to the 2023–2024 benchmarks, though exact placement hinges on how closely September tracks the upper end of current model ensembles versus any temporary moderation from internal variability. Official agencies note the event’s rapid intensification since spring, with virtually all forecasts maintaining very strong conditions through autumn, while historical analogs show strong El Niño Septembers often finishing among the top two or three. Traders’ tight 58% odds on first or second reflect this consensus tempered by recognition that September precedes the full seasonal peak and that minor forecast revisions could shift the final ranking.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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