Strong El Niño conditions have produced elevated wind shear across the Atlantic basin, suppressing intensification of the season’s six named storms to date and preventing any from reaching the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold. As of September 20, the National Hurricane Center reports zero hurricanes, extending the satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane well past the September 10 climatological peak. Tropical Storm Fay, which formed near the Azores on September 19, is forecast to remain below hurricane strength and over open water. With only ten days left in September and model guidance showing continued hostile conditions, trader consensus assigns an 83 percent implied probability that the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 will not occur until October or later.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКогда в 2026 году в Атлантике сформируется первый ураган?
Когда в 2026 году в Атлантике сформируется первый ураган?
В Атлантике не образуется ни одного урагана в сентябре 2026 года 83%
21 сентября — 25 сентября 2026 года 11%
26 сентября — 30 сентября 2026 года 4.8%
С 11 по 15 сентября 2026 года 1.0%
$25,425 Объем
$25,425 Объем
15 сент. 2026 г.
С 11 по 15 сентября 2026 года
1%
16–20 сентября 2026 года
<1%
21 сентября — 25 сентября 2026 года
11%
26 сентября — 30 сентября 2026 года
5%
В Атлантике не образуется ни одного урагана в сентябре 2026 года
83%
В Атлантике не образуется ни одного урагана в сентябре 2026 года 83%
21 сентября — 25 сентября 2026 года 11%
26 сентября — 30 сентября 2026 года 4.8%
С 11 по 15 сентября 2026 года 1.0%
$25,425 Объем
$25,425 Объем
15 сент. 2026 г.
С 11 по 15 сентября 2026 года
$1,145 Объем
1%
16–20 сентября 2026 года
$9,153 Объем
<1%
21 сентября — 25 сентября 2026 года
$4,870 Объем
11%
26 сентября — 30 сентября 2026 года
$2,430 Объем
5%
В Атлантике не образуется ни одного урагана в сентябре 2026 года
$7,216 Объем
83%
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Strong El Niño conditions have produced elevated wind shear across the Atlantic basin, suppressing intensification of the season’s six named storms to date and preventing any from reaching the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold. As of September 20, the National Hurricane Center reports zero hurricanes, extending the satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane well past the September 10 climatological peak. Tropical Storm Fay, which formed near the Azores on September 19, is forecast to remain below hurricane strength and over open water. With only ten days left in September and model guidance showing continued hostile conditions, trader consensus assigns an 83 percent implied probability that the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 will not occur until October or later.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Открытие рынка: Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Объем
$25,425Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Strong El Niño conditions have produced elevated wind shear across the Atlantic basin, suppressing intensification of the season’s six named storms to date and preventing any from reaching the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold. As of September 20, the National Hurricane Center reports zero hurricanes, extending the satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane well past the September 10 climatological peak. Tropical Storm Fay, which formed near the Azores on September 19, is forecast to remain below hurricane strength and over open water. With only ten days left in September and model guidance showing continued hostile conditions, trader consensus assigns an 83 percent implied probability that the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 will not occur until October or later.
This market resolves based on when the first Atlantic hurricane forms in 2026, as classified by the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC). Each bracket is inclusive of both its start and end dates, evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time (ET). The bracket containing the date of the first qualifying NHC advisory will resolve "Yes", and all other brackets will resolve "No".
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
A tropical cyclone is considered a hurricane when it has maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale). A system is considered to have "formed" as a hurricane at the date and time of the first NHC public advisory that classifies a system in the Atlantic basin as a hurricane. Resolution is based on that first advisory, regardless of any later downward revision or reclassification. The sole determinant of when the hurricane formed is the issuance timestamp of that first classifying NHC advisory (evaluated in U.S. Eastern Time), not the estimated time at which the system's winds first reached 74 mph; for a system that straddles midnight between September 30 and October 1, 2026, the applicable bracket is determined solely by whether that advisory's issuance timestamp falls before or after 12:00 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
The bracket "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026" will resolve "Yes" if no NHC advisory classifies any Atlantic-basin system as a hurricane at any time from 12:00 AM ET on September 1, 2026 through 11:59 PM ET on September 30, 2026. In the event that the NHC has not published any data by September 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET, or if the NHC becomes unavailable, this market will resolve to "No Atlantic hurricane will form in September 2026".
The resolution source for this market is the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC), available here: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Объем
$25,425Дата окончания
1 окт. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Sep 4, 2026, 12:02 PM ETИсточник определения исхода
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/Кто определяет исход
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions have produced elevated wind shear across the Atlantic basin, suppressing intensification of the season’s six named storms to date and preventing any from reaching the 74 mph Saffir-Simpson hurricane threshold. As of September 20, the National Hurricane Center reports zero hurricanes, extending the satellite-era record for the latest first hurricane well past the September 10 climatological peak. Tropical Storm Fay, which formed near the Azores on September 19, is forecast to remain below hurricane strength and over open water. With only ten days left in September and model guidance showing continued hostile conditions, trader consensus assigns an 83 percent implied probability that the first Atlantic hurricane of 2026 will not occur until October or later.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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