Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65.5% implied probability for "Yes" in the "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market after five months without any resolution triggers, reflecting sustained global stability amid high-stakes geopolitical risks. No escalations have met criteria like Russia invading a NATO country, China launching a Taiwan invasion, U.S. forces invading Iran, or the Iranian regime falling, despite ongoing tensions; recent diplomatic signals, including a May 9 Ukraine truce on Victory Day, have eased invasion fears without crossing thresholds. President Trump remains securely in office, Bitcoin holds steady near $80,000 short of $1 million or $10,000 extremes, and no VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, 9.0+ earthquakes, or major meteor strikes have occurred. Upcoming catalysts include the May 14 Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan and November midterms, where a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority could yet tip odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоНичего не происходит: 2026
Ничего не происходит: 2026
Да
$557,244 Объем
$557,244 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$557,244 Объем
$557,244 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65.5% implied probability for "Yes" in the "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market after five months without any resolution triggers, reflecting sustained global stability amid high-stakes geopolitical risks. No escalations have met criteria like Russia invading a NATO country, China launching a Taiwan invasion, U.S. forces invading Iran, or the Iranian regime falling, despite ongoing tensions; recent diplomatic signals, including a May 9 Ukraine truce on Victory Day, have eased invasion fears without crossing thresholds. President Trump remains securely in office, Bitcoin holds steady near $80,000 short of $1 million or $10,000 extremes, and no VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, 9.0+ earthquakes, or major meteor strikes have occurred. Upcoming catalysts include the May 14 Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan and November midterms, where a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority could yet tip odds.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Открытие рынка: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Объем
$557,244Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65.5% implied probability for "Yes" in the "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market after five months without any resolution triggers, reflecting sustained global stability amid high-stakes geopolitical risks. No escalations have met criteria like Russia invading a NATO country, China launching a Taiwan invasion, U.S. forces invading Iran, or the Iranian regime falling, despite ongoing tensions; recent diplomatic signals, including a May 9 Ukraine truce on Victory Day, have eased invasion fears without crossing thresholds. President Trump remains securely in office, Bitcoin holds steady near $80,000 short of $1 million or $10,000 extremes, and no VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, 9.0+ earthquakes, or major meteor strikes have occurred. Upcoming catalysts include the May 14 Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan and November midterms, where a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority could yet tip odds.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Объем
$557,244Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 65.5% implied probability for "Yes" in the "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market after five months without any resolution triggers, reflecting sustained global stability amid high-stakes geopolitical risks. No escalations have met criteria like Russia invading a NATO country, China launching a Taiwan invasion, U.S. forces invading Iran, or the Iranian regime falling, despite ongoing tensions; recent diplomatic signals, including a May 9 Ukraine truce on Victory Day, have eased invasion fears without crossing thresholds. President Trump remains securely in office, Bitcoin holds steady near $80,000 short of $1 million or $10,000 extremes, and no VEI 6+ volcanic eruptions, 9.0+ earthquakes, or major meteor strikes have occurred. Upcoming catalysts include the May 14 Trump-Xi summit on Taiwan and November midterms, where a Republican trifecta with Senate supermajority could yet tip odds.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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