**Recent polling averages ahead of the September 6, 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt Landtagswahl place Bündnis 90/Die Grünen narrowly ahead of Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), typically at 4–5% versus 4%, supporting the 68% trader-implied probability that Grüne will receive more votes.** Multiple August surveys (INSA, pollytix, Infratest dimap) show this small but consistent edge for the Greens, who benefit from established state-level organization and a focused campaign on parliamentary re-entry. In contrast, the BSW continues to grapple with internal divisions, including leadership disputes, disagreements over candidate selection and AfD positioning, and visible tensions at its Magdeburg party congress that have persisted into the final campaign weeks. These factors have kept BSW support flat or slightly trailing in head-to-head comparisons while both parties hover near or below the 5% threshold. The broader context of AfD dominance (41–43%) and CDU weakness has not altered the relative positioning between these two smaller parties, with no major late shifts reported that would reverse the polling pattern.