The closely contested 50% odds on SCOTUS upholding state bans reflect the pending rulings in Little v. Hecox and West Virginia v. B.P.J., where oral arguments in January 2026 showed a conservative majority inclined to sustain laws restricting transgender girls from female school sports teams under the Equal Protection Clause and Title IX. Lower courts had split on these challenges from Idaho and West Virginia, with broader implications for similar measures in over two dozen states. Uncertainty over the decision's scope, timing into summer 2026, and potential distinctions between permitting versus mandating bans sustains trader balance. A narrow affirmance or unexpected reversal on statutory grounds could shift probabilities before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоSCOTUS поддерживает запреты на транс-спорт?
SCOTUS поддерживает запреты на транс-спорт?
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 июл. 2026 г.
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 июл. 2026 г.
The Supreme Court has heard arguments on the merits of state laws that would limit participation in certain girls' and boys' sports teams based on biological sex at birth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that states may limit inclusion in boys' or girls' sports leagues based on biological sex at birth by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event that the Supreme Court allows states to impose these limitations in some sports leagues but not others (e.g. based on age), this market will resolve to "Yes."
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the challenged state laws may take effect.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the relevant laws may lawfully be enforced will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally prevents states from imposing laws that limit participation in girls' and boys' sports based on biological sex at birth, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely contested 50% odds on SCOTUS upholding state bans reflect the pending rulings in Little v. Hecox and West Virginia v. B.P.J., where oral arguments in January 2026 showed a conservative majority inclined to sustain laws restricting transgender girls from female school sports teams under the Equal Protection Clause and Title IX. Lower courts had split on these challenges from Idaho and West Virginia, with broader implications for similar measures in over two dozen states. Uncertainty over the decision's scope, timing into summer 2026, and potential distinctions between permitting versus mandating bans sustains trader balance. A narrow affirmance or unexpected reversal on statutory grounds could shift probabilities before resolution.
The Supreme Court has heard arguments on the merits of state laws that would limit participation in certain girls' and boys' sports teams based on biological sex at birth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that states may limit inclusion in boys' or girls' sports leagues based on biological sex at birth by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event that the Supreme Court allows states to impose these limitations in some sports leagues but not others (e.g. based on age), this market will resolve to "Yes."
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the challenged state laws may take effect.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the relevant laws may lawfully be enforced will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally prevents states from imposing laws that limit participation in girls' and boys' sports based on biological sex at birth, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that states may limit inclusion in boys' or girls' sports leagues based on biological sex at birth by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event that the Supreme Court allows states to impose these limitations in some sports leagues but not others (e.g. based on age), this market will resolve to "Yes."
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the challenged state laws may take effect.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the relevant laws may lawfully be enforced will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally prevents states from imposing laws that limit participation in girls' and boys' sports based on biological sex at birth, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jun 18, 2026, 11:54 AM ET
Объем
$169Дата окончания
31 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 18, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Supreme Court has heard arguments on the merits of state laws that would limit participation in certain girls' and boys' sports teams based on biological sex at birth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that states may limit inclusion in boys' or girls' sports leagues based on biological sex at birth by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event that the Supreme Court allows states to impose these limitations in some sports leagues but not others (e.g. based on age), this market will resolve to "Yes."
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the challenged state laws may take effect.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the relevant laws may lawfully be enforced will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally prevents states from imposing laws that limit participation in girls' and boys' sports based on biological sex at birth, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The closely contested 50% odds on SCOTUS upholding state bans reflect the pending rulings in Little v. Hecox and West Virginia v. B.P.J., where oral arguments in January 2026 showed a conservative majority inclined to sustain laws restricting transgender girls from female school sports teams under the Equal Protection Clause and Title IX. Lower courts had split on these challenges from Idaho and West Virginia, with broader implications for similar measures in over two dozen states. Uncertainty over the decision's scope, timing into summer 2026, and potential distinctions between permitting versus mandating bans sustains trader balance. A narrow affirmance or unexpected reversal on statutory grounds could shift probabilities before resolution.
The Supreme Court has heard arguments on the merits of state laws that would limit participation in certain girls' and boys' sports teams based on biological sex at birth.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that states may limit inclusion in boys' or girls' sports leagues based on biological sex at birth by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event that the Supreme Court allows states to impose these limitations in some sports leagues but not others (e.g. based on age), this market will resolve to "Yes."
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the challenged state laws may take effect.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the relevant laws may lawfully be enforced will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally prevents states from imposing laws that limit participation in girls' and boys' sports based on biological sex at birth, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Supreme Court of the United States rules that states may limit inclusion in boys' or girls' sports leagues based on biological sex at birth by July 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. In the event that the Supreme Court allows states to impose these limitations in some sports leagues but not others (e.g. based on age), this market will resolve to "Yes."
A qualifying ruling must clearly and finally rule that the challenged state laws may take effect.
Procedural rulings that do not clearly resolve whether the relevant laws may lawfully be enforced will not be sufficient to resolve this market to “Yes”.
If a Supreme Court ruling on this case clearly and finally prevents states from imposing laws that limit participation in girls' and boys' sports based on biological sex at birth, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Supreme Court of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$169Дата окончания
31 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 18, 2026, 11:54 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The closely contested 50% odds on SCOTUS upholding state bans reflect the pending rulings in Little v. Hecox and West Virginia v. B.P.J., where oral arguments in January 2026 showed a conservative majority inclined to sustain laws restricting transgender girls from female school sports teams under the Equal Protection Clause and Title IX. Lower courts had split on these challenges from Idaho and West Virginia, with broader implications for similar measures in over two dozen states. Uncertainty over the decision's scope, timing into summer 2026, and potential distinctions between permitting versus mandating bans sustains trader balance. A narrow affirmance or unexpected reversal on statutory grounds could shift probabilities before resolution.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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