The Supreme Court’s March 2026 oral arguments in Watson v. Republican National Committee have driven the current 69% implied probability that the Court will bar states from counting mail ballots received after Election Day. During the session, the conservative majority voiced skepticism that federal statutes setting Election Day as the deadline allow grace periods for postmarked ballots arriving days later, a practice now used in 14 states. A ruling is expected by late June or early July, potentially requiring immediate policy shifts ahead of the 2026 midterms and prompting election officials to adjust deadlines and voter communications. This judicial posture, reflecting a textualist reading of federal Election Day requirements, has shaped trader consensus without a final decision yet issued.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоSCOTUS запрещает подсчет почтовых бюллетеней после дня выборов?
SCOTUS запрещает подсчет почтовых бюллетеней после дня выборов?
Да
$39,286 Объем
$39,286 Объем
1 авг. 2026 г.
Да
$39,286 Объем
$39,286 Объем
1 авг. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Supreme Court’s March 2026 oral arguments in Watson v. Republican National Committee have driven the current 69% implied probability that the Court will bar states from counting mail ballots received after Election Day. During the session, the conservative majority voiced skepticism that federal statutes setting Election Day as the deadline allow grace periods for postmarked ballots arriving days later, a practice now used in 14 states. A ruling is expected by late June or early July, potentially requiring immediate policy shifts ahead of the 2026 midterms and prompting election officials to adjust deadlines and voter communications. This judicial posture, reflecting a textualist reading of federal Election Day requirements, has shaped trader consensus without a final decision yet issued.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Открытие рынка: Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ET
Объем
$39,286Дата окончания
1 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The Supreme Court’s March 2026 oral arguments in Watson v. Republican National Committee have driven the current 69% implied probability that the Court will bar states from counting mail ballots received after Election Day. During the session, the conservative majority voiced skepticism that federal statutes setting Election Day as the deadline allow grace periods for postmarked ballots arriving days later, a practice now used in 14 states. A ruling is expected by late June or early July, potentially requiring immediate policy shifts ahead of the 2026 midterms and prompting election officials to adjust deadlines and voter communications. This judicial posture, reflecting a textualist reading of federal Election Day requirements, has shaped trader consensus without a final decision yet issued.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States Supreme Court, in Watson v. Republican National Committee, rules that the federal election-day statutes preempt a state law that allows ballots cast by federal Election Day to be received and counted after election day, by August 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
This market will resolve based on the Supreme Court’s decision in this case. Other related cases or legislation will not affect resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Supreme Court; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Объем
$39,286Дата окончания
1 авг. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 24, 2026, 7:31 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Supreme Court’s March 2026 oral arguments in Watson v. Republican National Committee have driven the current 69% implied probability that the Court will bar states from counting mail ballots received after Election Day. During the session, the conservative majority voiced skepticism that federal statutes setting Election Day as the deadline allow grace periods for postmarked ballots arriving days later, a practice now used in 14 states. A ruling is expected by late June or early July, potentially requiring immediate policy shifts ahead of the 2026 midterms and prompting election officials to adjust deadlines and voter communications. This judicial posture, reflecting a textualist reading of federal Election Day requirements, has shaped trader consensus without a final decision yet issued.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
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