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icon for First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?

First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?

icon for First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?

First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?

6% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
6% вероятность
Polymarket
НОВОЕ
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.Recent polling for the June 2 primary shows incumbent Karen Bass leading at 30-35% among likely voters, with challengers Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman close behind at 20-23% each and 16% or more undecided. This fragmented field, combined with more than a dozen other candidates splitting remaining support, leaves no frontrunner near the 50% threshold required for an outright win. Historical patterns in Los Angeles nonpartisan primaries reinforce that top-two advancement to the November runoff remains the expected outcome absent a sudden consolidation of voter preferences before election day.

The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
Объем
$1,237
Дата окончания
2 июн. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.Recent polling for the June 2 primary shows incumbent Karen Bass leading at 30-35% among likely voters, with challengers Spencer Pratt and Nithya Raman close behind at 20-23% each and 16% or more undecided. This fragmented field, combined with more than a dozen other candidates splitting remaining support, leaves no frontrunner near the 50% threshold required for an outright win. Historical patterns in Los Angeles nonpartisan primaries reinforce that top-two advancement to the November runoff remains the expected outcome absent a sudden consolidation of voter preferences before election day.

The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.
Объем
$1,237
Дата окончания
2 июн. 2026 г.
Открытие рынка
May 15, 2026, 2:37 PM ET
The first round of the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election will be held on June 2, 2026, with a potential runoff on November 3, 2026. A candidate may win the election “outright” by winning more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve to “Yes” if any candidate wins the Los Angeles Mayoral election outright in the first round. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”. If the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the city and county of Los Angeles.

Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.

Часто задаваемые вопросы

«First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции «Да» или «Нет» в зависимости от того, верят ли они, что это событие произойдёт. Текущая вероятность по мнению сообщества составляет 6% для «Yes». Например, если «Да» торгуется по 6¢, рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность наступления события в 6%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются по мере реакции трейдеров на новые события и информацию. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.

«First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?» — недавно созданный рынок на Polymarket, запущен May 15, 2026. Как ранний рынок, это твоя возможность быть среди первых трейдеров, устанавливающих коэффициенты и формирующих начальные ценовые сигналы. Ты также можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки, чтобы следить за объёмом и активностью торгов.

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Текущая вероятность для «First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?» составляет 6% для «Yes». Это означает, что сообщество Polymarket в настоящее время оценивает вероятность наступления этого события в 6%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени на основе реальных сделок, предоставляя постоянно обновляемый сигнал ожиданий рынка.

Правила разрешения «First round outright winner in the LA Mayoral Election?» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.