**Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress has eased immediate risks but has not yet resolved the practical barriers to full traffic recovery.** The Strait of Hormuz has seen severely restricted commercial shipping since late February 2026 amid the Iran war, with Iran declaring closures or imposing threats on transits and the US enforcing a naval presence and blockade elements. Daily transits remain a small fraction of pre-crisis levels (typically under 10 vessels versus over 100 normally), with hundreds of ships stranded and flows limited to isolated early crossings or LNG movements. A US-Iran framework agreement and memorandum of understanding, announced around June 14–15 and set for formal steps around June 19, include provisions to reopen the waterway, end hostilities, and ease some sanctions. This has prompted modest optimism and some traffic pickup via safer lanes. However, shippers cite ongoing requirements for mine clearance, elevated war-risk insurance, verified safety assurances, and rebuilding confidence as factors likely to delay meaningful normalization. Industry estimates point to weeks or months for recovery to even half pre-crisis volumes, with full normal levels viewed as more probable later in the summer or beyond. Traders price the July 15 resolution date accordingly, viewing the timeline as too tight given these logistical and security hurdles despite the diplomatic breakthrough.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДвижение в Ормузском проливе вернется к норме к 15 июля?
Движение в Ормузском проливе вернется к норме к 15 июля?
Да
$4,579,977 Объем
$4,579,977 Объем
15 июл. 2026 г.
Да
$4,579,977 Объем
$4,579,977 Объем
15 июл. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress has eased immediate risks but has not yet resolved the practical barriers to full traffic recovery.**
The Strait of Hormuz has seen severely restricted commercial shipping since late February 2026 amid the Iran war, with Iran declaring closures or imposing threats on transits and the US enforcing a naval presence and blockade elements. Daily transits remain a small fraction of pre-crisis levels (typically under 10 vessels versus over 100 normally), with hundreds of ships stranded and flows limited to isolated early crossings or LNG movements.
A US-Iran framework agreement and memorandum of understanding, announced around June 14–15 and set for formal steps around June 19, include provisions to reopen the waterway, end hostilities, and ease some sanctions. This has prompted modest optimism and some traffic pickup via safer lanes. However, shippers cite ongoing requirements for mine clearance, elevated war-risk insurance, verified safety assurances, and rebuilding confidence as factors likely to delay meaningful normalization. Industry estimates point to weeks or months for recovery to even half pre-crisis volumes, with full normal levels viewed as more probable later in the summer or beyond.
Traders price the July 15 resolution date accordingly, viewing the timeline as too tight given these logistical and security hurdles despite the diplomatic breakthrough.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Открытие рынка: Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
Объем
$4,579,977Дата окончания
15 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.**Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress has eased immediate risks but has not yet resolved the practical barriers to full traffic recovery.**
The Strait of Hormuz has seen severely restricted commercial shipping since late February 2026 amid the Iran war, with Iran declaring closures or imposing threats on transits and the US enforcing a naval presence and blockade elements. Daily transits remain a small fraction of pre-crisis levels (typically under 10 vessels versus over 100 normally), with hundreds of ships stranded and flows limited to isolated early crossings or LNG movements.
A US-Iran framework agreement and memorandum of understanding, announced around June 14–15 and set for formal steps around June 19, include provisions to reopen the waterway, end hostilities, and ease some sanctions. This has prompted modest optimism and some traffic pickup via safer lanes. However, shippers cite ongoing requirements for mine clearance, elevated war-risk insurance, verified safety assurances, and rebuilding confidence as factors likely to delay meaningful normalization. Industry estimates point to weeks or months for recovery to even half pre-crisis volumes, with full normal levels viewed as more probable later in the summer or beyond.
Traders price the July 15 resolution date accordingly, viewing the timeline as too tight given these logistical and security hurdles despite the diplomatic breakthrough.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and July 15, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for July 15, 2026, however, will not be considered.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Объем
$4,580,291Дата окончания
15 июл. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Jun 13, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent US-Iran diplomatic progress has eased immediate risks but has not yet resolved the practical barriers to full traffic recovery.** The Strait of Hormuz has seen severely restricted commercial shipping since late February 2026 amid the Iran war, with Iran declaring closures or imposing threats on transits and the US enforcing a naval presence and blockade elements. Daily transits remain a small fraction of pre-crisis levels (typically under 10 vessels versus over 100 normally), with hundreds of ships stranded and flows limited to isolated early crossings or LNG movements. A US-Iran framework agreement and memorandum of understanding, announced around June 14–15 and set for formal steps around June 19, include provisions to reopen the waterway, end hostilities, and ease some sanctions. This has prompted modest optimism and some traffic pickup via safer lanes. However, shippers cite ongoing requirements for mine clearance, elevated war-risk insurance, verified safety assurances, and rebuilding confidence as factors likely to delay meaningful normalization. Industry estimates point to weeks or months for recovery to even half pre-crisis volumes, with full normal levels viewed as more probable later in the summer or beyond. Traders price the July 15 resolution date accordingly, viewing the timeline as too tight given these logistical and security hurdles despite the diplomatic breakthrough.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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