**No vacancy on the U.S. Supreme Court in 2026 appears likely, with traders assigning 76% probability to that outcome.** The two oldest justices—Samuel Alito (76) and Clarence Thomas (78)—have publicly and through reporting signaled they intend to remain. Alito confirmed in an August 2026 Wall Street Journal interview that he is “here for another term,” after hiring clerks for the October 2026–June 2027 term and rejecting retirement rumors. Thomas has similarly shown no departure plans, with reports indicating clerk hires extending further. The other seven justices are younger and have issued no signals of retirement. No health events or official announcements have emerged to alter this outlook, and the typical end-of-term retirement window in June/July 2026 passed without action. These developments, combined with the justices’ demonstrated longevity and the absence of vacancies as of mid-September 2026, underpin the market’s assessment that the bench will stay intact through December 31.