Recent statements from sources close to Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas indicate neither plans to retire before the end of 2026, with Alito actively hiring clerks for the 2027 term. These signals, reported in mid-May, have reinforced trader expectations of continuity on the Court. Both justices remain in good health with no public indications of departure, despite earlier April speculation tied to their ages of 76 and 77. Senate Republicans have expressed readiness to confirm a replacement quickly if needed before the midterms, yet the absence of any confirmed retirement timeline or health developments keeps the implied probability of a vacancy below even odds. This consensus reflects the justices' lifetime tenure norms and preference for strategic timing aligned with favorable Senate control.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоДа
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
НОВОЕ
НОВОЕ
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent statements from sources close to Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas indicate neither plans to retire before the end of 2026, with Alito actively hiring clerks for the 2027 term. These signals, reported in mid-May, have reinforced trader expectations of continuity on the Court. Both justices remain in good health with no public indications of departure, despite earlier April speculation tied to their ages of 76 and 77. Senate Republicans have expressed readiness to confirm a replacement quickly if needed before the midterms, yet the absence of any confirmed retirement timeline or health developments keeps the implied probability of a vacancy below even odds. This consensus reflects the justices' lifetime tenure norms and preference for strategic timing aligned with favorable Senate control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ET
Объем
$4,522Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. Recent statements from sources close to Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas indicate neither plans to retire before the end of 2026, with Alito actively hiring clerks for the 2027 term. These signals, reported in mid-May, have reinforced trader expectations of continuity on the Court. Both justices remain in good health with no public indications of departure, despite earlier April speculation tied to their ages of 76 and 77. Senate Republicans have expressed readiness to confirm a replacement quickly if needed before the midterms, yet the absence of any confirmed retirement timeline or health developments keeps the implied probability of a vacancy below even odds. This consensus reflects the justices' lifetime tenure norms and preference for strategic timing aligned with favorable Senate control.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$4,522Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 15, 2025, 7:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent statements from sources close to Justices Samuel Alito and Clarence Thomas indicate neither plans to retire before the end of 2026, with Alito actively hiring clerks for the 2027 term. These signals, reported in mid-May, have reinforced trader expectations of continuity on the Court. Both justices remain in good health with no public indications of departure, despite earlier April speculation tied to their ages of 76 and 77. Senate Republicans have expressed readiness to confirm a replacement quickly if needed before the midterms, yet the absence of any confirmed retirement timeline or health developments keeps the implied probability of a vacancy below even odds. This consensus reflects the justices' lifetime tenure norms and preference for strategic timing aligned with favorable Senate control.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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