**No Supreme Court vacancy in 2026 remains the strong trader consensus at 79.5% because the two oldest justices—Clarence Thomas (78) and Samuel Alito (76)—have given no public signals of retirement despite earlier 2026 speculation tied to Senate control and midterm timing.** Reports from April 2026 noted White House interest in strategic retirements that could allow additional Trump appointments, but subsequent updates indicated Alito had already hired clerks for the October Term 2026-2027 and was not expected to step down that term. Neither justice has cited health concerns or announced plans, and historical patterns show federal justices often serve into their late 70s or 80s without forced exits. With only months remaining in the calendar year and no confirmed developments, traders price in a low near-term likelihood of a vacancy.