Recent polling from the University of Houston Hobby School shows Ken Paxton holding a narrow 48-45 percent lead over incumbent John Cornyn among likely Republican primary runoff voters, with 7 percent undecided, keeping the May 26 contest highly competitive. This tight margin, following a March primary where roughly 2.2 million Republicans participated, has sustained interest among core voters and is positioning total turnout most likely in the 1.2–1.5 million range. Early voting runs May 18–22, with mail ballot and registration deadlines already passed, creating a compressed window that typically compresses participation relative to the initial primary but rewards high mobilization in battleground Republican areas. Traders are pricing in these dynamics, with modest probabilities also assigned to the adjacent 0.9–1.2 million and 1.5–1.8 million brackets, reflecting uncertainty over final weekend turnout and any last-minute campaign efforts.