Recent University of Houston and super PAC polls from early May show Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a narrow 48-45% edge over incumbent Senator John Cornyn among likely GOP primary runoff voters, with 7% undecided, keeping the May 26 contest statistically tied and driving trader consensus toward tight margins. Paxton's strength among very conservative and Trump-aligned Republicans, bolstered by consolidation of third-place finisher Wesley Hunt's voters, offsets Cornyn's incumbency advantage, superior fundraising exceeding $8 million cash-on-hand, and establishment backing. Absent a late endorsement from former President Trump—who has stayed neutral—or major gaffes, low-turnout runoff dynamics favor Paxton's motivated base, but early voting starting May 20 could solidify separation based on turnout in rural strongholds versus urban areas.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоКорнин <3% 21.2%
Пакстон 6–9% 21%
Пакстон 9%+ 16.6%
Пакстон 3–6% 14%
$59,073 Объем
$59,073 Объем
25 мая 2026 г.
Пакстон 9%+
17%
Пакстон 6–9%
21%
Пакстон 3–6%
14%
Пакстон <3%
12%
Корнин <3%
21%
Корнин 3–6%
7%
Корнин 6–9%
9%
Корнин 9%+
9%
Корнин <3% 21.2%
Пакстон 6–9% 21%
Пакстон 9%+ 16.6%
Пакстон 3–6% 14%
$59,073 Объем
$59,073 Объем
25 мая 2026 г.
Пакстон 9%+
$11,872 Объем
17%
Пакстон 6–9%
$6,727 Объем
21%
Пакстон 3–6%
$5,730 Объем
14%
Пакстон <3%
$7,085 Объем
12%
Корнин <3%
$5,174 Объем
21%
Корнин 3–6%
$5,243 Объем
7%
Корнин 6–9%
$5,306 Объем
9%
Корнин 9%+
$12,034 Объем
9%
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent University of Houston and super PAC polls from early May show Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a narrow 48-45% edge over incumbent Senator John Cornyn among likely GOP primary runoff voters, with 7% undecided, keeping the May 26 contest statistically tied and driving trader consensus toward tight margins. Paxton's strength among very conservative and Trump-aligned Republicans, bolstered by consolidation of third-place finisher Wesley Hunt's voters, offsets Cornyn's incumbency advantage, superior fundraising exceeding $8 million cash-on-hand, and establishment backing. Absent a late endorsement from former President Trump—who has stayed neutral—or major gaffes, low-turnout runoff dynamics favor Paxton's motivated base, but early voting starting May 20 could solidify separation based on turnout in rural strongholds versus urban areas.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Открытие рынка: Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ET
Объем
$59,073Дата окончания
25 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Recent University of Houston and super PAC polls from early May show Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a narrow 48-45% edge over incumbent Senator John Cornyn among likely GOP primary runoff voters, with 7% undecided, keeping the May 26 contest statistically tied and driving trader consensus toward tight margins. Paxton's strength among very conservative and Trump-aligned Republicans, bolstered by consolidation of third-place finisher Wesley Hunt's voters, offsets Cornyn's incumbency advantage, superior fundraising exceeding $8 million cash-on-hand, and establishment backing. Absent a late endorsement from former President Trump—who has stayed neutral—or major gaffes, low-turnout runoff dynamics favor Paxton's motivated base, but early voting starting May 20 could solidify separation based on turnout in rural strongholds versus urban areas.
The Texas Senate Republican primary runoff election is scheduled for May 26, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Texas Republican Senate Primary runoff election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher placed bracket (ascending).
If two candidates receive the same number of valid votes, this market will resolve according to the candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Texas, such as official statewide results published by the Texas Secretary of State (https://elections.sos.state.tx.us/index.htm); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Объем
$59,073Дата окончания
25 мая 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Mar 4, 2026, 12:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent University of Houston and super PAC polls from early May show Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton holding a narrow 48-45% edge over incumbent Senator John Cornyn among likely GOP primary runoff voters, with 7% undecided, keeping the May 26 contest statistically tied and driving trader consensus toward tight margins. Paxton's strength among very conservative and Trump-aligned Republicans, bolstered by consolidation of third-place finisher Wesley Hunt's voters, offsets Cornyn's incumbency advantage, superior fundraising exceeding $8 million cash-on-hand, and establishment backing. Absent a late endorsement from former President Trump—who has stayed neutral—or major gaffes, low-turnout runoff dynamics favor Paxton's motivated base, but early voting starting May 20 could solidify separation based on turnout in rural strongholds versus urban areas.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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