This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim edge in trader consensus for Kentucky's 4th District Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his strong record of ideological independence and appeal to younger voters despite President Trump's March endorsement of challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL. The race remains neck-and-neck after a May 11-12 Quantus Insights poll showed Gallrein leading 48.3%-43.1% among 908 likely GOP primary voters—a 17-point swing from April—fueled by over $25 million in record ad spending, much from pro-Israel PACs criticizing Massie's opposition to foreign aid. Massie dominates men and under-45s, while Gallrein leads women and seniors; final turnout, undecided leans (favoring Gallrein 52%-23%), and any late endorsements could decisively shift the closely contested outcome.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim edge in trader consensus for Kentucky's 4th District Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his strong record of ideological independence and appeal to younger voters despite President Trump's March endorsement of challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL. The race remains neck-and-neck after a May 11-12 Quantus Insights poll showed Gallrein leading 48.3%-43.1% among 908 likely GOP primary voters—a 17-point swing from April—fueled by over $25 million in record ad spending, much from pro-Israel PACs criticizing Massie's opposition to foreign aid. Massie dominates men and under-45s, while Gallrein leads women and seniors; final turnout, undecided leans (favoring Gallrein 52%-23%), and any late endorsements could decisively shift the closely contested outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Jun 30 2026
Kaplan Strategies poll shows Ethington trailing Massie 19 %–31 % despite earlier leads, confirming her declining support among GOP primary voters
Kaplan Strategies poll shows Ethington trailing Massie 19 %–31 % despite earlier leads, confirming her declining support among GOP primary voters
May 13 2026
Polymarket update notes Massie’s recent fundraising and debate exposure but also the surge in Gallrein’s spending, leaving Massie at a 56 % implied probability
Polymarket update notes Massie’s recent fundraising and debate exposure but also the surge in Gallrein’s spending, leaving Massie at a 56 % implied probability
May 13 2026
Gallrein’s campaign announces a fresh fundraising push surpassing $3 million, reviving optimism and spiking his odds back up
Ed Gallrein surges to 45%22%
Gallrein’s campaign announces a fresh fundraising push surpassing $3 million, reviving optimism and spiking his odds back up
May 13 2026
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallrein’s cash‑on‑hand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallrein’s cash‑on‑hand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the primary and supporting the latest
May 12 2026
Reports confirm ad spending in the Massie‑Gallrein race has eclipsed $25 million, underscoring the intensity of the contest and further pressuring Massie’s odds
Thomas Massie drops to 56%6%
Reports confirm ad spending in the Massie‑Gallrein race has eclipsed $25 million, underscoring the intensity of the contest and further pressuring Massie’s odds
May 11 2026
The Kentucky GOP primary becomes the most expensive U.S.
Thomas Massie plunges to 62%16%
House primary ever, with over $25.6 million in ad spending, most of it by Gallrein’s campaign
May 7 2026
Courier‑Journal analysis links Trump’s Indiana primary upsets to Gallrein’s momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trump’s endorsement remains “extraordinary value,”
Ed Gallrein surges to 44%21%
Courier‑Journal analysis links Trump’s Indiana primary upsets to Gallrein’s momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trump’s endorsement remains “extraordinary value,” which coincides with a sharp
May 5 2026
WKYU‑FM reports AI‑deep‑fake attack ads from opposing super‑PACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallrein‑focused ad portraying him as a “coward,” sparking controversy and a
Ed Gallrein drops to 23%9%
WKYU‑FM reports AI‑deep‑fake attack ads from opposing super‑PACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallrein‑focused ad portraying him as a “coward,” sparking controversy and a brief
May 5 2026
WKYU FM reports AI “deep‑fake” attack ads targeting both candidates;
Ed Gallrein drops to 23%7%
the Gallrein‑focused ad draws criticism and likely depresses his odds further
Apr 30 2026
Quantus Insights poll shows Gallrein trailing Massie 37.7 %–46.8 %, reinforcing a downward trend in his market
Ed Gallrein dips to 30%2%
Quantus Insights poll shows Gallrein trailing Massie 37.7 %–46.8 %, reinforcing a downward trend in his market
Apr 30 2026
Quantus Insights poll shows Massie leading 46.8% to Gallrein’s 37.7%, a setback that pushes Gallrein’s
Ed Gallrein dips to 32%4%
Quantus Insights poll shows Massie leading 46.8% to Gallrein’s 37.7%, a setback that pushes Gallrein’s
Apr 16 2026
Massie skips the candidate‑question deadline for the primary voter guide, drawing criticism and raising doubts about his campaign organization
Thomas Massie dips to 66%3%
Massie skips the candidate‑question deadline for the primary voter guide, drawing criticism and raising doubts about his campaign organization
Apr 14 2026
Voter‑guide coverage highlights that Trump‑endorsed Ed Gallrein is the “high‑profile” challenger aiming to replace Massie, signaling a tougher race and nudging the
Thomas Massie dips to 61%4%
Voter‑guide coverage highlights that Trump‑endorsed Ed Gallrein is the “high‑profile” challenger aiming to replace Massie, signaling a tougher race and nudging the
Apr 2 2026
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5‑point surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengers—including Robert Wells Jr.—down to 28 cents,
Robert Wells Jr. dips to 0%1%
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5‑point surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengers—including Robert Wells Jr.—down to 28 cents, reflecting a sharp sell‑off on Wells’s odds
Mar 31 2026
Cincinnati .com notes Trump’s March rally in Hebron where Gallrein shared the stage, renewing media attention and driving a
Ed Gallrein jumps to 36%6%
Cincinnati .com notes Trump’s March rally in Hebron where Gallrein shared the stage, renewing media attention and driving a
Mar 31 2026
Cincinnati .com runs a story highlighting Massie’s attack on Gallrein’s party‑registration history, causing a modest decline in Gallrein’s odds
Ed Gallrein dips to 32%4%
Cincinnati .com runs a story highlighting Massie’s attack on Gallrein’s party‑registration history, causing a modest decline in Gallrein’s odds
Mar 20 2026
Massie appears in a televised debate in Louisville, receiving favorable post‑debate ratings that lift his odds
Thomas Massie rises to 66%2%
Massie appears in a televised debate in Louisville, receiving favorable post‑debate ratings that lift his odds
Mar 10 2026
Washington Examiner notes Gallrein’s confidence surge after Trump‑backed Indiana primary victories, pushing his odds back up
Ed Gallrein jumps to 36%6%
Washington Examiner notes Gallrein’s confidence surge after Trump‑backed Indiana primary victories, pushing his odds back up
Feb 24 2026
Report reveals that out‑of‑state billionaires and pro‑Israel groups have poured $10 million into ads against Gallrein, prompting a sharp dip in his odds
Ed Gallrein jumps to 30%6%
Report reveals that out‑of‑state billionaires and pro‑Israel groups have poured $10 million into ads against Gallrein, prompting a sharp dip in his odds
Feb 24 2026
Report on “who’s behind the millions” reveals out‑of‑state billionaire donors and pro‑Israel PACs pouring over $1 million into anti‑Massie ads, signalling a spending surge for
Ed Gallrein jumps to 30%6%
Report on “who’s behind the millions” reveals out‑of‑state billionaire donors and pro‑Israel PACs pouring over $1 million into anti‑Massie ads, signalling a spending surge for Gallrein’s side and lifting his odds
Feb 10 2026
A poll released by a local news outlet shows Massie leading Gallrein 52‑44 among likely Republican primary voters, pushing the market higher
Thomas Massie rises to 75%4%
A poll released by a local news outlet shows Massie leading Gallrein 52‑44 among likely Republican primary voters, pushing the market higher
Jan 6 2026
Massie’s fundraising surge following Trump’s attacks highlights the growing momentum of his opponents, further diminishing Ethington’s perceived viability
Nicole Lee Ethington dips to 0%1%
Massie’s fundraising surge following Trump’s attacks highlights the growing momentum of his opponents, further diminishing Ethington’s perceived viability
Jan 6 2026
President Trump publicly endorses Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, a primary rival, and attacks Rep.
Nicole Lee Ethington dips to 1%2%
Thomas Massie, drawing attention away from Ethington and boosting Gallrein’s fundraising
Jan 4 2026
Massie reports $2.5 million raised in Q1 and begins TV debate ads, boosting his perceived competitiveness
Thomas Massie jumps to 72%5%
Massie reports $2.5 million raised in Q1 and begins TV debate ads, boosting his perceived competitiveness
Dec 15 2025
Massie files his 2026 re‑election paperwork, officially entering the race and prompting early optimism among supporters
Thomas Massie jumps to 58%12%
Massie files his 2026 re‑election paperwork, officially entering the race and prompting early optimism among supporters
Dec 1 2025
Nicole Lee Ethington files withdrawal paperwork, ending her campaign for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
Nicole Lee Ethington plunges to 3%43%
Nicole Lee Ethington files withdrawal paperwork, ending her campaign for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
Nov 20 2025
Madspace reports Trump’s endorsement emphasizing Gallrein’s “always‑under‑siege” Second‑Amendment stance, reinforcing the Trump‑backed narrative and prompting a modest
Ed Gallrein drops to 28%5%
Madspace reports Trump’s endorsement emphasizing Gallrein’s “always‑under‑siege” Second‑Amendment stance, reinforcing the Trump‑backed narrative and prompting a modest
Nov 20 2025
Madspace publishes analysis of Gallrein’s “second‑amendment” pledge and notes Trump’s backing, reinforcing his Trump‑aligned brand and nudging odds upward
Ed Gallrein drops to 28%5%
Madspace publishes analysis of Gallrein’s “second‑amendment” pledge and notes Trump’s backing, reinforcing his Trump‑aligned brand and nudging odds upward
Oct 21 2025
Ed Gallrein announces his congressional run and receives a full‑blown endorsement from President Donald Trump on Truth Social, instantly lifting his primary profile
Ed Gallrein drops to 33%14%
Ed Gallrein announces his congressional run and receives a full‑blown endorsement from President Donald Trump on Truth Social, instantly lifting his primary profile
Oct 21 2025
Gallrein announces his congressional run and unveils Trump’s endorsement on Truth Social, instantly raising his profile and market odds
Ed Gallrein drops to 33%14%
Gallrein announces his congressional run and unveils Trump’s endorsement on Truth Social, instantly raising his profile and market odds
Jun 15 2025
Former President Donald Trump publicly endorses incumbent Rep.
Robert Wells Jr. drops to 1%13%
Thomas Massie and calls for a primary challenge against him, signaling strong establishment support for Massie over lesser‑known challengers like Wells
Jan 9 2025
Kentucky Secretary of State confirms Robert Wells Jr.
Robert Wells Jr. plunges to 3%43%
files paperwork to run for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim edge in trader consensus for Kentucky's 4th District Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his strong record of ideological independence and appeal to younger voters despite President Trump's March endorsement of challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL. The race remains neck-and-neck after a May 11-12 Quantus Insights poll showed Gallrein leading 48.3%-43.1% among 908 likely GOP primary voters—a 17-point swing from April—fueled by over $25 million in record ad spending, much from pro-Israel PACs criticizing Massie's opposition to foreign aid. Massie dominates men and under-45s, while Gallrein leads women and seniors; final turnout, undecided leans (favoring Gallrein 52%-23%), and any late endorsements could decisively shift the closely contested outcome.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the KY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on May 19, 2026.
If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Incumbent Rep. Thomas Massie holds a slim edge in trader consensus for Kentucky's 4th District Republican primary on May 19, buoyed by his strong record of ideological independence and appeal to younger voters despite President Trump's March endorsement of challenger Ed Gallrein, a former Navy SEAL. The race remains neck-and-neck after a May 11-12 Quantus Insights poll showed Gallrein leading 48.3%-43.1% among 908 likely GOP primary voters—a 17-point swing from April—fueled by over $25 million in record ad spending, much from pro-Israel PACs criticizing Massie's opposition to foreign aid. Massie dominates men and under-45s, while Gallrein leads women and seniors; final turnout, undecided leans (favoring Gallrein 52%-23%), and any late endorsements could decisively shift the closely contested outcome.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
Jun 30 2026
Kaplan Strategies poll shows Ethington trailing Massie 19 %–31 % despite earlier leads, confirming her declining support among GOP primary voters
Kaplan Strategies poll shows Ethington trailing Massie 19 %–31 % despite earlier leads, confirming her declining support among GOP primary voters
May 13 2026
Polymarket update notes Massie’s recent fundraising and debate exposure but also the surge in Gallrein’s spending, leaving Massie at a 56 % implied probability
Polymarket update notes Massie’s recent fundraising and debate exposure but also the surge in Gallrein’s spending, leaving Massie at a 56 % implied probability
May 13 2026
Gallrein’s campaign announces a fresh fundraising push surpassing $3 million, reviving optimism and spiking his odds back up
Ed Gallrein surges to 45%22%
Gallrein’s campaign announces a fresh fundraising push surpassing $3 million, reviving optimism and spiking his odds back up
May 13 2026
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallrein’s cash‑on‑hand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the
Local 12 fundraising report shows Gallrein’s cash‑on‑hand climbing to $1.4 million and total receipts topping $2.4 million, confirming strong financial footing ahead of the primary and supporting the latest
May 12 2026
Reports confirm ad spending in the Massie‑Gallrein race has eclipsed $25 million, underscoring the intensity of the contest and further pressuring Massie’s odds
Thomas Massie drops to 56%6%
Reports confirm ad spending in the Massie‑Gallrein race has eclipsed $25 million, underscoring the intensity of the contest and further pressuring Massie’s odds
May 11 2026
The Kentucky GOP primary becomes the most expensive U.S.
Thomas Massie plunges to 62%16%
House primary ever, with over $25.6 million in ad spending, most of it by Gallrein’s campaign
May 7 2026
Courier‑Journal analysis links Trump’s Indiana primary upsets to Gallrein’s momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trump’s endorsement remains “extraordinary value,”
Ed Gallrein surges to 44%21%
Courier‑Journal analysis links Trump’s Indiana primary upsets to Gallrein’s momentum, quoting campaign adviser Tim Murdaugh that Trump’s endorsement remains “extraordinary value,” which coincides with a sharp
May 5 2026
WKYU‑FM reports AI‑deep‑fake attack ads from opposing super‑PACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallrein‑focused ad portraying him as a “coward,” sparking controversy and a
Ed Gallrein drops to 23%9%
WKYU‑FM reports AI‑deep‑fake attack ads from opposing super‑PACs targeting both candidates, with a Gallrein‑focused ad portraying him as a “coward,” sparking controversy and a brief
May 5 2026
WKYU FM reports AI “deep‑fake” attack ads targeting both candidates;
Ed Gallrein drops to 23%7%
the Gallrein‑focused ad draws criticism and likely depresses his odds further
Apr 30 2026
Quantus Insights poll shows Gallrein trailing Massie 37.7 %–46.8 %, reinforcing a downward trend in his market
Ed Gallrein dips to 30%2%
Quantus Insights poll shows Gallrein trailing Massie 37.7 %–46.8 %, reinforcing a downward trend in his market
Apr 30 2026
Quantus Insights poll shows Massie leading 46.8% to Gallrein’s 37.7%, a setback that pushes Gallrein’s
Ed Gallrein dips to 32%4%
Quantus Insights poll shows Massie leading 46.8% to Gallrein’s 37.7%, a setback that pushes Gallrein’s
Apr 16 2026
Massie skips the candidate‑question deadline for the primary voter guide, drawing criticism and raising doubts about his campaign organization
Thomas Massie dips to 66%3%
Massie skips the candidate‑question deadline for the primary voter guide, drawing criticism and raising doubts about his campaign organization
Apr 14 2026
Voter‑guide coverage highlights that Trump‑endorsed Ed Gallrein is the “high‑profile” challenger aiming to replace Massie, signaling a tougher race and nudging the
Thomas Massie dips to 61%4%
Voter‑guide coverage highlights that Trump‑endorsed Ed Gallrein is the “high‑profile” challenger aiming to replace Massie, signaling a tougher race and nudging the
Apr 2 2026
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5‑point surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengers—including Robert Wells Jr.—down to 28 cents,
Robert Wells Jr. dips to 0%1%
Polymarket market analysis notes a 7.5‑point surge for Thomas Massie, pushing the combined probability of all other challengers—including Robert Wells Jr.—down to 28 cents, reflecting a sharp sell‑off on Wells’s odds
Mar 31 2026
Cincinnati .com notes Trump’s March rally in Hebron where Gallrein shared the stage, renewing media attention and driving a
Ed Gallrein jumps to 36%6%
Cincinnati .com notes Trump’s March rally in Hebron where Gallrein shared the stage, renewing media attention and driving a
Mar 31 2026
Cincinnati .com runs a story highlighting Massie’s attack on Gallrein’s party‑registration history, causing a modest decline in Gallrein’s odds
Ed Gallrein dips to 32%4%
Cincinnati .com runs a story highlighting Massie’s attack on Gallrein’s party‑registration history, causing a modest decline in Gallrein’s odds
Mar 20 2026
Massie appears in a televised debate in Louisville, receiving favorable post‑debate ratings that lift his odds
Thomas Massie rises to 66%2%
Massie appears in a televised debate in Louisville, receiving favorable post‑debate ratings that lift his odds
Mar 10 2026
Washington Examiner notes Gallrein’s confidence surge after Trump‑backed Indiana primary victories, pushing his odds back up
Ed Gallrein jumps to 36%6%
Washington Examiner notes Gallrein’s confidence surge after Trump‑backed Indiana primary victories, pushing his odds back up
Feb 24 2026
Report reveals that out‑of‑state billionaires and pro‑Israel groups have poured $10 million into ads against Gallrein, prompting a sharp dip in his odds
Ed Gallrein jumps to 30%6%
Report reveals that out‑of‑state billionaires and pro‑Israel groups have poured $10 million into ads against Gallrein, prompting a sharp dip in his odds
Feb 24 2026
Report on “who’s behind the millions” reveals out‑of‑state billionaire donors and pro‑Israel PACs pouring over $1 million into anti‑Massie ads, signalling a spending surge for
Ed Gallrein jumps to 30%6%
Report on “who’s behind the millions” reveals out‑of‑state billionaire donors and pro‑Israel PACs pouring over $1 million into anti‑Massie ads, signalling a spending surge for Gallrein’s side and lifting his odds
Feb 10 2026
A poll released by a local news outlet shows Massie leading Gallrein 52‑44 among likely Republican primary voters, pushing the market higher
Thomas Massie rises to 75%4%
A poll released by a local news outlet shows Massie leading Gallrein 52‑44 among likely Republican primary voters, pushing the market higher
Jan 6 2026
Massie’s fundraising surge following Trump’s attacks highlights the growing momentum of his opponents, further diminishing Ethington’s perceived viability
Nicole Lee Ethington dips to 0%1%
Massie’s fundraising surge following Trump’s attacks highlights the growing momentum of his opponents, further diminishing Ethington’s perceived viability
Jan 6 2026
President Trump publicly endorses Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein, a primary rival, and attacks Rep.
Nicole Lee Ethington dips to 1%2%
Thomas Massie, drawing attention away from Ethington and boosting Gallrein’s fundraising
Jan 4 2026
Massie reports $2.5 million raised in Q1 and begins TV debate ads, boosting his perceived competitiveness
Thomas Massie jumps to 72%5%
Massie reports $2.5 million raised in Q1 and begins TV debate ads, boosting his perceived competitiveness
Dec 15 2025
Massie files his 2026 re‑election paperwork, officially entering the race and prompting early optimism among supporters
Thomas Massie jumps to 58%12%
Massie files his 2026 re‑election paperwork, officially entering the race and prompting early optimism among supporters
Dec 1 2025
Nicole Lee Ethington files withdrawal paperwork, ending her campaign for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
Nicole Lee Ethington plunges to 3%43%
Nicole Lee Ethington files withdrawal paperwork, ending her campaign for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
Nov 20 2025
Madspace reports Trump’s endorsement emphasizing Gallrein’s “always‑under‑siege” Second‑Amendment stance, reinforcing the Trump‑backed narrative and prompting a modest
Ed Gallrein drops to 28%5%
Madspace reports Trump’s endorsement emphasizing Gallrein’s “always‑under‑siege” Second‑Amendment stance, reinforcing the Trump‑backed narrative and prompting a modest
Nov 20 2025
Madspace publishes analysis of Gallrein’s “second‑amendment” pledge and notes Trump’s backing, reinforcing his Trump‑aligned brand and nudging odds upward
Ed Gallrein drops to 28%5%
Madspace publishes analysis of Gallrein’s “second‑amendment” pledge and notes Trump’s backing, reinforcing his Trump‑aligned brand and nudging odds upward
Oct 21 2025
Ed Gallrein announces his congressional run and receives a full‑blown endorsement from President Donald Trump on Truth Social, instantly lifting his primary profile
Ed Gallrein drops to 33%14%
Ed Gallrein announces his congressional run and receives a full‑blown endorsement from President Donald Trump on Truth Social, instantly lifting his primary profile
Oct 21 2025
Gallrein announces his congressional run and unveils Trump’s endorsement on Truth Social, instantly raising his profile and market odds
Ed Gallrein drops to 33%14%
Gallrein announces his congressional run and unveils Trump’s endorsement on Truth Social, instantly raising his profile and market odds
Jun 15 2025
Former President Donald Trump publicly endorses incumbent Rep.
Robert Wells Jr. drops to 1%13%
Thomas Massie and calls for a primary challenge against him, signaling strong establishment support for Massie over lesser‑known challengers like Wells
Jan 9 2025
Kentucky Secretary of State confirms Robert Wells Jr.
Robert Wells Jr. plunges to 3%43%
files paperwork to run for the KY‑04 Republican nomination
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Не доверяй внешним ссылкам.
Часто задаваемые вопросы
«Победитель республиканских праймериз KY-04» — это рынок прогнозов на Polymarket с 4 возможными исходами, где трейдеры покупают и продают акции на основе своих прогнозов. Текущий лидирующий исход — «Томас Мэсси» с 56%, за ним следует «Эд Галрейн» с 44%. Цены отражают вероятности сообщества в реальном времени. Например, акция по цене 56¢ означает, что рынок коллективно оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 56%. Эти коэффициенты постоянно меняются. Акции правильного исхода можно обменять на $1 каждую при разрешении рынка.
На сегодняшний день «Победитель республиканских праймериз KY-04» сгенерировал общий объём торгов $955.4K с момента запуска рынка Dec 1, 2025. Такой уровень активности отражает высокую вовлечённость сообщества Polymarket и гарантирует, что текущие коэффициенты формируются широким кругом участников рынка. Ты можешь отслеживать движение цен в реальном времени и торговать любым исходом прямо на этой странице.
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Текущий фаворит для «Победитель республиканских праймериз KY-04» — «Томас Мэсси» с 56%, что означает, что рынок оценивает вероятность этого исхода в 56%. Следующий ближайший исход — «Эд Галрейн» с 44%. Эти коэффициенты обновляются в реальном времени по мере покупки и продажи акций. Заходи чаще или добавь страницу в закладки.
Правила разрешения «Победитель республиканских праймериз KY-04» точно определяют, что должно произойти, чтобы каждый исход был объявлен победителем, включая официальные источники данных, используемые для определения результата. Ты можешь просмотреть полные критерии разрешения в разделе «Правила» на этой странице над комментариями. Мы рекомендуем внимательно прочитать правила перед торговлей, так как они определяют точные условия, особые случаи и источники.
Да. Тебе не нужно торговать, чтобы оставаться в курсе. Эта страница служит трекером в реальном времени для «Победитель республиканских праймериз KY-04». Вероятности исходов обновляются в реальном времени по мере поступления новых сделок. Ты можешь добавить эту страницу в закладки и читать раздел комментариев, чтобы узнать мнение других трейдеров. Ты также можешь использовать фильтры временного диапазона на графике, чтобы увидеть, как менялись коэффициенты со временем.
Коэффициенты Polymarket устанавливаются реальными трейдерами, вкладывающими реальные деньги в свои убеждения, что обычно приводит к точным прогнозам. С объёмом торгов $955.4K по “Победитель республиканских праймериз KY-04” эти цены агрегируют коллективные знания и убеждённость тысяч участников — часто превосходя опросы, экспертные прогнозы и традиционные исследования. Рынки прогнозов, такие как Polymarket, имеют сильный послужной список точности, особенно когда события приближаются к дате разрешения. Например, месячный показатель точности Polymarket составляет 94%. Для получения последних статистических данных о точности прогнозов Polymarket посети страницу точности на Polymarket.
Чтобы совершить первую сделку на «Победитель республиканских праймериз KY-04», зарегистрируй бесплатный аккаунт на Polymarket и пополни его с помощью криптовалюты, кредитной или дебетовой карты или банковского перевода. После пополнения аккаунта вернись на эту страницу, выбери исход, на который хочешь торговать, введи сумму и нажми «Торговать». Если ты новичок на рынках прогнозов, нажми на ссылку «Как это работает» вверху любой страницы Polymarket для пошагового руководства.
На Polymarket цена каждого исхода представляет подразумеваемую вероятность рынка. Цена 56¢ для «Томас Мэсси» на рынке «Победитель республиканских праймериз KY-04» означает, что трейдеры коллективно оценивают вероятность того, что «Томас Мэсси» будет правильным результатом, примерно в 56%. Если ты купишь акции «Да» по 56¢ и исход окажется правильным, ты получишь $1,00 за акцию — прибыль 44¢ за акцию. Если нет — эти акции будут стоить $0.
Рынок «Победитель республиканских праймериз KY-04» запланирован к разрешению примерно May 19, 2026. Это означает, что торговля остаётся открытой, а коэффициенты продолжат меняться до этой даты. Точные сроки разрешения зависят от момента появления официального результата, как описано в разделе «Правила».
Рынок «Победитель республиканских праймериз KY-04» имеет активное сообщество из 67 комментариев, где трейдеры делятся своим анализом, обсуждают исходы и последние события. Прокрути вниз до раздела комментариев, чтобы прочитать, что думают другие участники. Ты также можешь фильтровать по «Топ-держателям» или проверить вкладку «Активность» для ленты сделок в реальном времени.
Polymarket — крупнейший в мире рынок прогнозов, где ты можешь оставаться в курсе событий и зарабатывать на своих знаниях о реальных событиях. Трейдеры покупают и продают акции на исходы по темам от политики и выборов до криптовалют, финансов, спорта, технологий и культуры, включая рынки вроде «Победитель республиканских праймериз KY-04». Цены отражают вероятности в реальном времени, подкреплённые финансовыми убеждениями, зачастую обеспечивая более быстрые и точные сигналы, чем опросы, эксперты или традиционные исследования.
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