**The high 89.5% market-implied probability for “No” reflects trader consensus that the June 2026 Anthropic episode was a one-off intervention rather than the start of repeated government actions.** In mid-June, the Commerce Department issued an export-control directive that forced Anthropic to disable public access to its frontier models Mythos 5 and Fable 5 for all users after identifying a narrow jailbreak risk tied to cybersecurity threats; the company complied by taking the models offline industry-wide while negotiations proceeded. Access to Mythos 5 was partially restored to vetted partners within weeks, and full export controls were lifted by June 30 after Anthropic strengthened safeguards. OpenAI faced parallel pressure and initially limited GPT-5.6 releases to approved partners before broader availability. Since then, the Trump administration has shifted toward a voluntary pre-release review framework established by its June executive order, emphasizing company-government collaboration on safety rather than outright public-access bans. No comparable formal actions removing general public access to major frontier models (from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or peers) have occurred in the subsequent three months. Recent developments, including scrutiny of Chinese models on U.S. government sites, have instead highlighted policy inconsistencies without triggering new U.S. removals of domestic or allied models. With the year-end resolution date approaching and companies now operating under clearer review protocols, traders view another broad removal as improbable absent a significant new national-security trigger.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоПравительство США закрывает публичный доступ к другой крупной модели ИИ в 2026 году?
Правительство США закрывает публичный доступ к другой крупной модели ИИ в 2026 году?
Да
11% вероятность
$31,108 Объем
$31,108 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
11% вероятность
$31,108 Объем
$31,108 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The high 89.5% market-implied probability for “No” reflects trader consensus that the June 2026 Anthropic episode was a one-off intervention rather than the start of repeated government actions.**
In mid-June, the Commerce Department issued an export-control directive that forced Anthropic to disable public access to its frontier models Mythos 5 and Fable 5 for all users after identifying a narrow jailbreak risk tied to cybersecurity threats; the company complied by taking the models offline industry-wide while negotiations proceeded. Access to Mythos 5 was partially restored to vetted partners within weeks, and full export controls were lifted by June 30 after Anthropic strengthened safeguards. OpenAI faced parallel pressure and initially limited GPT-5.6 releases to approved partners before broader availability.
Since then, the Trump administration has shifted toward a voluntary pre-release review framework established by its June executive order, emphasizing company-government collaboration on safety rather than outright public-access bans. No comparable formal actions removing general public access to major frontier models (from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or peers) have occurred in the subsequent three months. Recent developments, including scrutiny of Chinese models on U.S. government sites, have instead highlighted policy inconsistencies without triggering new U.S. removals of domestic or allied models.
With the year-end resolution date approaching and companies now operating under clearer review protocols, traders view another broad removal as improbable absent a significant new national-security trigger.
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Открытие рынка: Jul 3, 2026, 5:48 PM ET
Объем
$31,108Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 3, 2026, 5:48 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**The high 89.5% market-implied probability for “No” reflects trader consensus that the June 2026 Anthropic episode was a one-off intervention rather than the start of repeated government actions.**
In mid-June, the Commerce Department issued an export-control directive that forced Anthropic to disable public access to its frontier models Mythos 5 and Fable 5 for all users after identifying a narrow jailbreak risk tied to cybersecurity threats; the company complied by taking the models offline industry-wide while negotiations proceeded. Access to Mythos 5 was partially restored to vetted partners within weeks, and full export controls were lifted by June 30 after Anthropic strengthened safeguards. OpenAI faced parallel pressure and initially limited GPT-5.6 releases to approved partners before broader availability.
Since then, the Trump administration has shifted toward a voluntary pre-release review framework established by its June executive order, emphasizing company-government collaboration on safety rather than outright public-access bans. No comparable formal actions removing general public access to major frontier models (from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or peers) have occurred in the subsequent three months. Recent developments, including scrutiny of Chinese models on U.S. government sites, have instead highlighted policy inconsistencies without triggering new U.S. removals of domestic or allied models.
With the year-end resolution date approaching and companies now operating under clearer review protocols, traders view another broad removal as improbable absent a significant new national-security trigger.
This market resolves "Yes" if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action that has the effect of generally removing public access within the US to a major AI model, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying action is a formal US government action that has the effect of a general removal of public access to a previously publicly available AI model within the US. Such an action qualifies, regardless of its stated purpose or nominal target. An action directed at other parties qualifies if, in effect, it causes a general removal of public access to the model within the US (e.g., a ban on the provision of a model to foreign citizens or governments would qualify if, due to the ban, the providing company generally removed public access to the model within the US). A general removal of public access to a qualifying model qualifies even if it does not apply to limited groups or organizations (e.g., whitelisted firms or individuals with security clearance). To qualify, ordinary public access to the model must be eliminated across ordinary public channels within the US; removal from a single channel is not sufficient. Removals of general public access not caused by any formal US government action will not qualify.
"Major AI model" refers to a flagship, general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model developed by one of the following companies: OpenAI, Anthropic, Google (including Google DeepMind), Meta, xAI, Microsoft, Amazon, Mistral AI, DeepSeek, Alibaba, ByteDance, Moonshot AI, and Zhipu AI (Z.ai). Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
The action may target a single model or a slate of models, so long as at least one major AI model is generally removed from public access within the US as a result of the action.
The removal of access for any amount of time qualifies. An action that has been enacted or issued, but which has not effected the removal of general public access to a major model by the resolution date, will not qualify.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the relevant AI company. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Объем
$31,108Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Jul 3, 2026, 5:48 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...**The high 89.5% market-implied probability for “No” reflects trader consensus that the June 2026 Anthropic episode was a one-off intervention rather than the start of repeated government actions.** In mid-June, the Commerce Department issued an export-control directive that forced Anthropic to disable public access to its frontier models Mythos 5 and Fable 5 for all users after identifying a narrow jailbreak risk tied to cybersecurity threats; the company complied by taking the models offline industry-wide while negotiations proceeded. Access to Mythos 5 was partially restored to vetted partners within weeks, and full export controls were lifted by June 30 after Anthropic strengthened safeguards. OpenAI faced parallel pressure and initially limited GPT-5.6 releases to approved partners before broader availability. Since then, the Trump administration has shifted toward a voluntary pre-release review framework established by its June executive order, emphasizing company-government collaboration on safety rather than outright public-access bans. No comparable formal actions removing general public access to major frontier models (from OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or peers) have occurred in the subsequent three months. Recent developments, including scrutiny of Chinese models on U.S. government sites, have instead highlighted policy inconsistencies without triggering new U.S. removals of domestic or allied models. With the year-end resolution date approaching and companies now operating under clearer review protocols, traders view another broad removal as improbable absent a significant new national-security trigger.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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