Recent progress toward a US-Iran ceasefire memorandum and potential sanctions waivers on oil exports has emerged as the dominant factor shaping trader views on the rial. Diplomatic signals in mid-June, including tentative commitments to ease restrictions and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, have supported expectations for improved Iranian revenue flows that could stabilize or modestly strengthen the currency by month-end. Persistent uncertainties over implementation timelines, hardliner opposition, and residual sanctions enforcement keep the leading bands tightly contested, with any breakthrough or setback in talks before June 30 likely to shift probabilities between the sub-1.6 million ranges.