Recent forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season point to below-normal activity, with Colorado State University projecting 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and only two major hurricanes due to a developing El Niño pattern expected to boost vertical wind shear across the main development region and suppress intensification. This outlook aligns with the quiet 2025 season, which produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls, and supports the current 65.5% market-implied probability that no Category 4 storm reaches the U.S. coastline before 2027. The National Hurricane Center’s seasonal outlook, due May 21, and early monitoring showing no disturbances as of mid-May represent key near-term catalysts that could shift trader consensus if model runs indicate higher major-hurricane potential.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли какой-либо ураган категории 4 выходить на сушу в США до 2027 года?
Будет ли какой-либо ураган категории 4 выходить на сушу в США до 2027 года?
Да
$327,944 Объем
$327,944 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
$327,944 Объем
$327,944 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Recent forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season point to below-normal activity, with Colorado State University projecting 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and only two major hurricanes due to a developing El Niño pattern expected to boost vertical wind shear across the main development region and suppress intensification. This outlook aligns with the quiet 2025 season, which produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls, and supports the current 65.5% market-implied probability that no Category 4 storm reaches the U.S. coastline before 2027. The National Hurricane Center’s seasonal outlook, due May 21, and early monitoring showing no disturbances as of mid-May represent key near-term catalysts that could shift trader consensus if model runs indicate higher major-hurricane potential.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Открытие рынка: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Объем
$327,944Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Recent forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season point to below-normal activity, with Colorado State University projecting 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and only two major hurricanes due to a developing El Niño pattern expected to boost vertical wind shear across the main development region and suppress intensification. This outlook aligns with the quiet 2025 season, which produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls, and supports the current 65.5% market-implied probability that no Category 4 storm reaches the U.S. coastline before 2027. The National Hurricane Center’s seasonal outlook, due May 21, and early monitoring showing no disturbances as of mid-May represent key near-term catalysts that could shift trader consensus if model runs indicate higher major-hurricane potential.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Объем
$327,944Дата окончания
31 дек. 2026 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent forecasts for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season point to below-normal activity, with Colorado State University projecting 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and only two major hurricanes due to a developing El Niño pattern expected to boost vertical wind shear across the main development region and suppress intensification. This outlook aligns with the quiet 2025 season, which produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls, and supports the current 65.5% market-implied probability that no Category 4 storm reaches the U.S. coastline before 2027. The National Hurricane Center’s seasonal outlook, due May 21, and early monitoring showing no disturbances as of mid-May represent key near-term catalysts that could shift trader consensus if model runs indicate higher major-hurricane potential.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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