The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, driven by a strong El Niño producing elevated wind shear across the main development region, underpins the 92% market-implied odds against a Category 4 landfall (130–156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) in the continental U.S. before 2027. As of mid-September, the season has produced no hurricanes and minimal accumulated cyclone energy, with NOAA and other forecasts projecting well below-normal totals of 0–2 major hurricanes for the full year. Historical records indicate Category 4 or stronger U.S. landfalls occur irregularly, often years apart amid high interannual variability. A realistic shift would require rapid El Niño decay plus late-season Gulf or western Caribbean development allowing rapid intensification, though current model consensus and steering patterns make this improbable before the November 30 close.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · ОбновленоБудет ли какой-либо ураган категории 4 выходить на сушу в США до 2027 года?
Будет ли какой-либо ураган категории 4 выходить на сушу в США до 2027 года?
Да
8% вероятность
$343,987 Объем
$343,987 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
Да
8% вероятность
$343,987 Объем
$343,987 Объем
31 дек. 2026 г.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, driven by a strong El Niño producing elevated wind shear across the main development region, underpins the 92% market-implied odds against a Category 4 landfall (130–156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) in the continental U.S. before 2027. As of mid-September, the season has produced no hurricanes and minimal accumulated cyclone energy, with NOAA and other forecasts projecting well below-normal totals of 0–2 major hurricanes for the full year. Historical records indicate Category 4 or stronger U.S. landfalls occur irregularly, often years apart amid high interannual variability. A realistic shift would require rapid El Niño decay plus late-season Gulf or western Caribbean development allowing rapid intensification, though current model consensus and steering patterns make this improbable before the November 30 close.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Открытие рынка: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
Объем
$343,987Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, driven by a strong El Niño producing elevated wind shear across the main development region, underpins the 92% market-implied odds against a Category 4 landfall (130–156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) in the continental U.S. before 2027. As of mid-September, the season has produced no hurricanes and minimal accumulated cyclone energy, with NOAA and other forecasts projecting well below-normal totals of 0–2 major hurricanes for the full year. Historical records indicate Category 4 or stronger U.S. landfalls occur irregularly, often years apart amid high interannual variability. A realistic shift would require rapid El Niño decay plus late-season Gulf or western Caribbean development allowing rapid intensification, though current model consensus and steering patterns make this improbable before the November 30 close.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
Объем
$343,987Дата окончания
1 янв. 2027 г.Открытие рынка
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETКто определяет исход
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season's extreme inactivity, driven by a strong El Niño producing elevated wind shear across the main development region, underpins the 92% market-implied odds against a Category 4 landfall (130–156 mph sustained winds on the Saffir-Simpson scale) in the continental U.S. before 2027. As of mid-September, the season has produced no hurricanes and minimal accumulated cyclone energy, with NOAA and other forecasts projecting well below-normal totals of 0–2 major hurricanes for the full year. Historical records indicate Category 4 or stronger U.S. landfalls occur irregularly, often years apart amid high interannual variability. A realistic shift would require rapid El Niño decay plus late-season Gulf or western Caribbean development allowing rapid intensification, though current model consensus and steering patterns make this improbable before the November 30 close.
Экспериментальная сводка, созданная ИИ на основе данных Polymarket. Это не является торговой рекомендацией и не влияет на то, как разрешается этот рынок. · Обновлено
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