Meta leads market-implied odds at 40% for the #2 AI lab by end of October under style control evaluation, ahead of Google at 21%, OpenAI at 17%, and Anthropic at 13.5%, reflecting a fragmented race where no single lab dominates. Recent model releases—including Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants, Anthropic’s Claude iterations, and Meta’s Muse Spark updates—have narrowed gaps on benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance, while Meta’s open-model distribution and enterprise adoption provide a consistent edge in accessibility. Upcoming developer conferences and potential safety or capability announcements before October 31 could shift trader consensus, underscoring how rapid iteration cycles and feature parity keep probabilities fluid.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMeta 40%
Google 21%
OpenAI 17%
Anthropic 14%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
40%
21%
OpenAI
17%
Anthropic
14%
Alibaba
13%
Z.ai
3%
Moonshot
3%
SpaceXAI
7%
DeepSeek
2%
ByteDance
2%
Meituan
2%
Nvidia
1%
StepFun
1%
Baidu
1%
Xiaomi
1%
Thinky
1%
Mistral
1%
Amazon
1%
Tencent
1%
Microsoft
1%
MiniMax
1%
Meta 40%
Google 21%
OpenAI 17%
Anthropic 14%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Oct 31, 2026
Meta
$467 ปริมาณ
40%
$2,629 ปริมาณ
21%
OpenAI
$522 ปริมาณ
17%
Anthropic
$393 ปริมาณ
14%
Alibaba
$272 ปริมาณ
13%
Z.ai
$249 ปริมาณ
3%
Moonshot
$119 ปริมาณ
3%
SpaceXAI
$287 ปริมาณ
7%
DeepSeek
$107 ปริมาณ
2%
ByteDance
$259 ปริมาณ
2%
Meituan
$144 ปริมาณ
2%
Nvidia
$191 ปริมาณ
1%
StepFun
$250 ปริมาณ
1%
Baidu
$219 ปริมาณ
1%
Xiaomi
$249 ปริมาณ
1%
Thinky
$319 ปริมาณ
1%
Mistral
$278 ปริมาณ
1%
Amazon
$258 ปริมาณ
1%
Tencent
$296 ปริมาณ
1%
Microsoft
$301 ปริมาณ
1%
MiniMax
$278 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta leads market-implied odds at 40% for the #2 AI lab by end of October under style control evaluation, ahead of Google at 21%, OpenAI at 17%, and Anthropic at 13.5%, reflecting a fragmented race where no single lab dominates. Recent model releases—including Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants, Anthropic’s Claude iterations, and Meta’s Muse Spark updates—have narrowed gaps on benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance, while Meta’s open-model distribution and enterprise adoption provide a consistent edge in accessibility. Upcoming developer conferences and potential safety or capability announcements before October 31 could shift trader consensus, underscoring how rapid iteration cycles and feature parity keep probabilities fluid.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,092วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Meta leads market-implied odds at 40% for the #2 AI lab by end of October under style control evaluation, ahead of Google at 21%, OpenAI at 17%, and Anthropic at 13.5%, reflecting a fragmented race where no single lab dominates. Recent model releases—including Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants, Anthropic’s Claude iterations, and Meta’s Muse Spark updates—have narrowed gaps on benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance, while Meta’s open-model distribution and enterprise adoption provide a consistent edge in accessibility. Upcoming developer conferences and potential safety or capability announcements before October 31 could shift trader consensus, underscoring how rapid iteration cycles and feature parity keep probabilities fluid.
This market will resolve according to the second-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) (Style Control On) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall?rankBy=labs with style control on (Adjustments: Style Control) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$8,092วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 12, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Meta leads market-implied odds at 40% for the #2 AI lab by end of October under style control evaluation, ahead of Google at 21%, OpenAI at 17%, and Anthropic at 13.5%, reflecting a fragmented race where no single lab dominates. Recent model releases—including Google’s Gemini 3.7 Flash, OpenAI’s GPT-5.6 variants, Anthropic’s Claude iterations, and Meta’s Muse Spark updates—have narrowed gaps on benchmarks for reasoning, coding, and multimodal performance, while Meta’s open-model distribution and enterprise adoption provide a consistent edge in accessibility. Upcoming developer conferences and potential safety or capability announcements before October 31 could shift trader consensus, underscoring how rapid iteration cycles and feature parity keep probabilities fluid.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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