Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton holds a strong position in Arizona's 4th congressional district, where the Cook Partisan Voting Index registers a D+4 lean and he secured reelection in 2024 with 52.7 percent of the vote. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, pricing Democrats at 82.5 percent to retain the seat in the November 2026 general election. Recent candidate filings ahead of the March 2026 deadline produced a splintered Republican primary field including Zuhdi Jasser, Elizabeth Reye, and Alex Stovall, none of whom have matched Stanton's fundraising or name recognition. Stanton's Democratic primary opponent, Kai Newkirk, also trails significantly in resources ahead of the July 21 primaries. These factors have kept the race rated solid Democratic by major forecasters, with limited recent developments altering the outlook.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAZ-04 House Election Winner
AZ-04 House Election Winner
$13,557 ปริมาณ
$13,557 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
83%
Republican Party
16%
$13,557 ปริมาณ
$13,557 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$11,000 ปริมาณ
83%
Republican Party
$2,557 ปริมาณ
16%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton holds a strong position in Arizona's 4th congressional district, where the Cook Partisan Voting Index registers a D+4 lean and he secured reelection in 2024 with 52.7 percent of the vote. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, pricing Democrats at 82.5 percent to retain the seat in the November 2026 general election. Recent candidate filings ahead of the March 2026 deadline produced a splintered Republican primary field including Zuhdi Jasser, Elizabeth Reye, and Alex Stovall, none of whom have matched Stanton's fundraising or name recognition. Stanton's Democratic primary opponent, Kai Newkirk, also trails significantly in resources ahead of the July 21 primaries. These factors have kept the race rated solid Democratic by major forecasters, with limited recent developments altering the outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13,557วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton holds a strong position in Arizona's 4th congressional district, where the Cook Partisan Voting Index registers a D+4 lean and he secured reelection in 2024 with 52.7 percent of the vote. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, pricing Democrats at 82.5 percent to retain the seat in the November 2026 general election. Recent candidate filings ahead of the March 2026 deadline produced a splintered Republican primary field including Zuhdi Jasser, Elizabeth Reye, and Alex Stovall, none of whom have matched Stanton's fundraising or name recognition. Stanton's Democratic primary opponent, Kai Newkirk, also trails significantly in resources ahead of the July 21 primaries. These factors have kept the race rated solid Democratic by major forecasters, with limited recent developments altering the outlook.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AZ-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$13,557วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Greg Stanton holds a strong position in Arizona's 4th congressional district, where the Cook Partisan Voting Index registers a D+4 lean and he secured reelection in 2024 with 52.7 percent of the vote. Trader consensus reflects this structural advantage, pricing Democrats at 82.5 percent to retain the seat in the November 2026 general election. Recent candidate filings ahead of the March 2026 deadline produced a splintered Republican primary field including Zuhdi Jasser, Elizabeth Reye, and Alex Stovall, none of whom have matched Stanton's fundraising or name recognition. Stanton's Democratic primary opponent, Kai Newkirk, also trails significantly in resources ahead of the July 21 primaries. These factors have kept the race rated solid Democratic by major forecasters, with limited recent developments altering the outlook.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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