Lula da Silva secured a narrow second-round victory over Flávio Bolsonaro on October 25, with official tallies showing him at 51.79 percent to 48.21 percent—a margin of roughly 3.6 percentage points once nearly all votes were counted. This outcome aligned closely with the final tightening of polls after the first-round surprise and large-scale post-election protests that boosted turnout among Lula supporters. Traders priced the 2-4 percent band at full consensus because electronic voting results proved consistent across regions and matched multiple independent projections. Only an unprecedented recount or tabulation error could realistically shift the margin outside this range before formal certification.