Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4-series variants currently anchor the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1506–1510 Elo as of mid-June 2026, giving traders near-certain conviction that the 1500 Overall Arena threshold will be cleared by year-end. Steady gains from continued fine-tuning, expanded voting volume, and iterative releases across Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have produced only modest score increases since early 2026, keeping the 1550 band at roughly 20–25% implied probability. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated second-half frontier drops and any reasoning or multi-turn improvements that could accelerate Elo movement. Resolution depends strictly on the public text leaderboard at December 31.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว$101,078 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
↑ 1550
27%
↑ 1600
13%
↑ 1650
10%
↑ 1700
9%
$101,078 ปริมาณ
↑ 1550
$34,097 ปริมาณ
27%
↑ 1600
$20,526 ปริมาณ
13%
↑ 1650
$7,603 ปริมาณ
10%
↑ 1700
$5,097 ปริมาณ
9%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4-series variants currently anchor the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1506–1510 Elo as of mid-June 2026, giving traders near-certain conviction that the 1500 Overall Arena threshold will be cleared by year-end. Steady gains from continued fine-tuning, expanded voting volume, and iterative releases across Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have produced only modest score increases since early 2026, keeping the 1550 band at roughly 20–25% implied probability. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated second-half frontier drops and any reasoning or multi-turn improvements that could accelerate Elo movement. Resolution depends strictly on the public text leaderboard at December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$101,078วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4-series variants currently anchor the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1506–1510 Elo as of mid-June 2026, giving traders near-certain conviction that the 1500 Overall Arena threshold will be cleared by year-end. Steady gains from continued fine-tuning, expanded voting volume, and iterative releases across Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have produced only modest score increases since early 2026, keeping the 1550 band at roughly 20–25% implied probability. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated second-half frontier drops and any reasoning or multi-turn improvements that could accelerate Elo movement. Resolution depends strictly on the public text leaderboard at December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$101,078วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 1:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5 and Opus 4-series variants currently anchor the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard near 1506–1510 Elo as of mid-June 2026, giving traders near-certain conviction that the 1500 Overall Arena threshold will be cleared by year-end. Steady gains from continued fine-tuning, expanded voting volume, and iterative releases across Anthropic, OpenAI, and Google have produced only modest score increases since early 2026, keeping the 1550 band at roughly 20–25% implied probability. Key catalysts ahead include anticipated second-half frontier drops and any reasoning or multi-turn improvements that could accelerate Elo movement. Resolution depends strictly on the public text leaderboard at December 31.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย