South Carolina’s Senate race has tightened more than Florida’s in recent polling, supporting traders’ view that it will finish closer on November 3. Republican Darline Graham, appointed after her brother Lindsey Graham’s death and confirmed via primary runoff, leads Democrat Annie Andrews by roughly 3 points in the latest surveys, with some showing margins of 1 point or less. Florida’s special election features Republican appointee Ashley Moody ahead of Democrat Angie Nixon by 6–8 points across multiple polls, consistent with the state’s partisan lean. Both contests feature appointed Republican incumbents facing Democratic challengers who outperformed expectations in primaries, yet South Carolina’s narrower spreads and history of occasional competitiveness have produced the current market pricing. Early voting has begun in South Carolina, with final weeks of campaigning and turnout patterns remaining key variables.