Mary Peltola holds a narrow first-choice lead of roughly 4,000 votes over incumbent Dan Sullivan in Alaska’s 2026 Senate contest, with 86 percent of ballots counted and no candidate reaching 50 percent. This positioning drives the 75.3 percent market price on a Peltola 3-6 percent final margin under ranked-choice voting, as additional absentee ballots from Republican-leaning areas have narrowed but not erased her edge. Traders price the outcome around the current 1.6-point first-choice spread because minor candidates’ second preferences are expected to consolidate modestly in Peltola’s favor during tabulation scheduled to begin November 18. Ongoing counting through November 13 and certification on November 25 remain the primary variables that could still adjust the final margin within or beyond the leading range.