Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a trader consensus edge at 54% implied probability to retain Minnesota's 1st Congressional District, an R+6 seat where he won by 17 points in 2024, reflecting his incumbency advantage and historical performance exceeding Trump-era margins. Democrat Jake Johnson, the leading primary challenger after Andy Smith's withdrawal, trails in the latest March Ragnar Research poll (Finstad 52%, Johnson 42%), rebounding from a tighter February PPP survey amid competitive fundraising. With no major developments in the past 30 days, odds incorporate district fundamentals and base rates for Republican holds in midterms, though the race remains contested ahead of August 11 primaries and the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMN-01 House Election Winner
MN-01 House Election Winner
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
61%
Democratic Party
37%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$3,041 ปริมาณ
61%
Democratic Party
$3,590 ปริมาณ
37%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a trader consensus edge at 54% implied probability to retain Minnesota's 1st Congressional District, an R+6 seat where he won by 17 points in 2024, reflecting his incumbency advantage and historical performance exceeding Trump-era margins. Democrat Jake Johnson, the leading primary challenger after Andy Smith's withdrawal, trails in the latest March Ragnar Research poll (Finstad 52%, Johnson 42%), rebounding from a tighter February PPP survey amid competitive fundraising. With no major developments in the past 30 days, odds incorporate district fundamentals and base rates for Republican holds in midterms, though the race remains contested ahead of August 11 primaries and the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,631วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a trader consensus edge at 54% implied probability to retain Minnesota's 1st Congressional District, an R+6 seat where he won by 17 points in 2024, reflecting his incumbency advantage and historical performance exceeding Trump-era margins. Democrat Jake Johnson, the leading primary challenger after Andy Smith's withdrawal, trails in the latest March Ragnar Research poll (Finstad 52%, Johnson 42%), rebounding from a tighter February PPP survey amid competitive fundraising. With no major developments in the past 30 days, odds incorporate district fundamentals and base rates for Republican holds in midterms, though the race remains contested ahead of August 11 primaries and the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$6,631วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Brad Finstad holds a trader consensus edge at 54% implied probability to retain Minnesota's 1st Congressional District, an R+6 seat where he won by 17 points in 2024, reflecting his incumbency advantage and historical performance exceeding Trump-era margins. Democrat Jake Johnson, the leading primary challenger after Andy Smith's withdrawal, trails in the latest March Ragnar Research poll (Finstad 52%, Johnson 42%), rebounding from a tighter February PPP survey amid competitive fundraising. With no major developments in the past 30 days, odds incorporate district fundamentals and base rates for Republican holds in midterms, though the race remains contested ahead of August 11 primaries and the November 3 general election.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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