Incumbent Republican Nick Begich III holds the seat after defeating Democrat Mary Peltola in 2024 and faces limited opposition ahead of the August 18, 2026, top-four primary. Prominent Democratic contender Matt Schultz withdrew in July, leaving minor-party names on the ballot, while independent Bill Hill emerges as the clearest general-election threat in recent polling that shows Begich ahead by double digits in some surveys and narrower margins in others. Alaska’s consistent Republican lean in federal contests, combined with the state’s ranked-choice voting system and Begich’s incumbency advantages, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 83.5 percent implied probability versus 15 percent for Democrats. The primary outcome and any late independent consolidation will shape the final path to November.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วAK-AL House Election Winner
AK-AL House Election Winner
$28,094 ปริมาณ
$28,094 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
84%
Democratic Party
15%
$28,094 ปริมาณ
$28,094 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$6,439 ปริมาณ
84%
Democratic Party
$21,655 ปริมาณ
15%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nick Begich III holds the seat after defeating Democrat Mary Peltola in 2024 and faces limited opposition ahead of the August 18, 2026, top-four primary. Prominent Democratic contender Matt Schultz withdrew in July, leaving minor-party names on the ballot, while independent Bill Hill emerges as the clearest general-election threat in recent polling that shows Begich ahead by double digits in some surveys and narrower margins in others. Alaska’s consistent Republican lean in federal contests, combined with the state’s ranked-choice voting system and Begich’s incumbency advantages, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 83.5 percent implied probability versus 15 percent for Democrats. The primary outcome and any late independent consolidation will shape the final path to November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$28,094วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Nick Begich III holds the seat after defeating Democrat Mary Peltola in 2024 and faces limited opposition ahead of the August 18, 2026, top-four primary. Prominent Democratic contender Matt Schultz withdrew in July, leaving minor-party names on the ballot, while independent Bill Hill emerges as the clearest general-election threat in recent polling that shows Begich ahead by double digits in some surveys and narrower margins in others. Alaska’s consistent Republican lean in federal contests, combined with the state’s ranked-choice voting system and Begich’s incumbency advantages, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 83.5 percent implied probability versus 15 percent for Democrats. The primary outcome and any late independent consolidation will shape the final path to November.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the AK-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$28,094วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 27, 2026, 5:46 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Nick Begich III holds the seat after defeating Democrat Mary Peltola in 2024 and faces limited opposition ahead of the August 18, 2026, top-four primary. Prominent Democratic contender Matt Schultz withdrew in July, leaving minor-party names on the ballot, while independent Bill Hill emerges as the clearest general-election threat in recent polling that shows Begich ahead by double digits in some surveys and narrower margins in others. Alaska’s consistent Republican lean in federal contests, combined with the state’s ranked-choice voting system and Begich’s incumbency advantages, underpin trader consensus favoring the Republican Party at 83.5 percent implied probability versus 15 percent for Democrats. The primary outcome and any late independent consolidation will shape the final path to November.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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