Incumbent Rep. Dusty Johnson's retirement to pursue the governorship opened South Dakota's at-large House seat, yet trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 94% implied probability, reflecting the district's deep-red history with 40+ point GOP margins in recent cycles. Attorney General Marty Jackley commands the Republican primary field, leading challenger James Bialota 68%-12% in an April Mason-Dixon poll and 51%-7% in a March Emerson survey, positioning him for a likely June 2 nomination amid strong fundraising. Democrat Nikki Gronli advances unopposed but faces steep structural barriers in the Trump-won state. Upsets could stem from a primary shock, nominee scandal, or national Democratic wave, though none appear imminent.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วSD-AL House Election Winner
SD-AL House Election Winner
$16,931 ปริมาณ
$16,931 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
94%
Democratic Party
4%
$16,931 ปริมาณ
$16,931 ปริมาณ
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$9,474 ปริมาณ
94%
Democratic Party
$7,457 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Dusty Johnson's retirement to pursue the governorship opened South Dakota's at-large House seat, yet trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 94% implied probability, reflecting the district's deep-red history with 40+ point GOP margins in recent cycles. Attorney General Marty Jackley commands the Republican primary field, leading challenger James Bialota 68%-12% in an April Mason-Dixon poll and 51%-7% in a March Emerson survey, positioning him for a likely June 2 nomination amid strong fundraising. Democrat Nikki Gronli advances unopposed but faces steep structural barriers in the Trump-won state. Upsets could stem from a primary shock, nominee scandal, or national Democratic wave, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$16,931วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Dusty Johnson's retirement to pursue the governorship opened South Dakota's at-large House seat, yet trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 94% implied probability, reflecting the district's deep-red history with 40+ point GOP margins in recent cycles. Attorney General Marty Jackley commands the Republican primary field, leading challenger James Bialota 68%-12% in an April Mason-Dixon poll and 51%-7% in a March Emerson survey, positioning him for a likely June 2 nomination amid strong fundraising. Democrat Nikki Gronli advances unopposed but faces steep structural barriers in the Trump-won state. Upsets could stem from a primary shock, nominee scandal, or national Democratic wave, though none appear imminent.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the SD-AL congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$16,931วันสิ้นสุด
Nov 3, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 28, 2026, 11:23 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Dusty Johnson's retirement to pursue the governorship opened South Dakota's at-large House seat, yet trader consensus heavily favors the Republican Party at 94% implied probability, reflecting the district's deep-red history with 40+ point GOP margins in recent cycles. Attorney General Marty Jackley commands the Republican primary field, leading challenger James Bialota 68%-12% in an April Mason-Dixon poll and 51%-7% in a March Emerson survey, positioning him for a likely June 2 nomination amid strong fundraising. Democrat Nikki Gronli advances unopposed but faces steep structural barriers in the Trump-won state. Upsets could stem from a primary shock, nominee scandal, or national Democratic wave, though none appear imminent.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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