James Talarico defeated Ken Paxton in the November 3, 2026, Texas Senate election by roughly 12.1 points, with unofficial tallies showing the Democrat at 55.1% and the Republican at 43.0% after nearly all votes were counted. Trader consensus on a Talarico margin above 12% reflects consistent county-level shifts toward Democrats relative to the 2024 presidential results, particularly in suburban areas like Collin, Denton, and Tarrant counties plus stronger performance in urban and border regions. Paxton's primary win over incumbent John Cornyn, amid ongoing legal and ethical issues, contributed to weaker Republican turnout in key battlegrounds. Final certification or minor adjustments to provisional and late-counted ballots remain the primary variables that could still alter the precise margin before market resolution.