**Recent polling in the open-seat 2026 Senate contests shows Michigan consistently tighter than New Hampshire, supporting trader consensus that the Michigan race is more likely to finish closer.** In Michigan, Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers by margins typically ranging from 1 to 7 points across late-September surveys, with RCP averages near D+3.5 and multiple polls inside 3 points or tied; the race remains rated a toss-up or lean Democratic by forecasters amid high undecided shares and independent movement. In New Hampshire, Democrat Chris Pappas holds a steadier edge over Republican John E. Sununu, with recent NYT/Siena, UNH, and other polls showing leads of 5–8 points and averages around D+5. Both contests feature substantial outside spending and open seats previously held by Democrats, but Michigan’s narrower projected margins and higher modeled probability of a sub-3-point finish explain the current implied probabilities.