Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to a 25-basis-point ECB deposit facility rate increase at the June 2026 meeting, driven primarily by April 2026 headline inflation rising to 3.0%—its highest level since late 2023—on energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions. The ECB left rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting but highlighted intensified upside inflation risks alongside downside growth pressures, with Q1 GDP expanding just 0.1%. This data-dependent stance, reinforced by economist surveys projecting two 2026 hikes beginning in June, has solidified market consensus around modest tightening to contain second-round effects, while the slim 13.2% odds of no change reflect lingering concerns over weak growth momentum ahead of the June 11 decision.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
25 bps Increase 85%
No change 13.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,555 ปริมาณ
$275,555 ปริมาณ
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
13%
25 bps Increase
85%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 85%
No change 13.3%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,555 ปริมาณ
$275,555 ปริมาณ
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$54,123 ปริมาณ
<1%
25 bps decrease
$43,953 ปริมาณ
<1%
No change
$52,213 ปริมาณ
13%
25 bps Increase
$72,057 ปริมาณ
85%
50+ bps increase
$53,209 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to a 25-basis-point ECB deposit facility rate increase at the June 2026 meeting, driven primarily by April 2026 headline inflation rising to 3.0%—its highest level since late 2023—on energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions. The ECB left rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting but highlighted intensified upside inflation risks alongside downside growth pressures, with Q1 GDP expanding just 0.1%. This data-dependent stance, reinforced by economist surveys projecting two 2026 hikes beginning in June, has solidified market consensus around modest tightening to contain second-round effects, while the slim 13.2% odds of no change reflect lingering concerns over weak growth momentum ahead of the June 11 decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$275,555วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 11, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to a 25-basis-point ECB deposit facility rate increase at the June 2026 meeting, driven primarily by April 2026 headline inflation rising to 3.0%—its highest level since late 2023—on energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions. The ECB left rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting but highlighted intensified upside inflation risks alongside downside growth pressures, with Q1 GDP expanding just 0.1%. This data-dependent stance, reinforced by economist surveys projecting two 2026 hikes beginning in June, has solidified market consensus around modest tightening to contain second-round effects, while the slim 13.2% odds of no change reflect lingering concerns over weak growth momentum ahead of the June 11 decision.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$275,555วันสิ้นสุด
Jun 11, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders assign an 85.5% implied probability to a 25-basis-point ECB deposit facility rate increase at the June 2026 meeting, driven primarily by April 2026 headline inflation rising to 3.0%—its highest level since late 2023—on energy price spikes tied to Middle East geopolitical tensions. The ECB left rates unchanged at its April 30 meeting but highlighted intensified upside inflation risks alongside downside growth pressures, with Q1 GDP expanding just 0.1%. This data-dependent stance, reinforced by economist surveys projecting two 2026 hikes beginning in June, has solidified market consensus around modest tightening to contain second-round effects, while the slim 13.2% odds of no change reflect lingering concerns over weak growth momentum ahead of the June 11 decision.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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