Current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 21 will likely peak near 25–26°C under stable high-pressure influence and light winds, aligning with the market's 45.5% implied probability for 26°C as the leading outcome. Recent model runs show modest boundary-layer warming consistent with late-summer climatology, though slight divergences in cloud cover and mixing could shift results into the 25°C or 27°C bins holding 21.5% and 26% respectively. Official resolution relies on IMGW station data, with traders weighting consensus guidance over historical August averages around 22–23°C. Updated runs ahead of market close will refine these probabilities amid typical short-range forecast uncertainty.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 21?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 21?
26°C 46%
27°C 26%
25°C 22%
24°C 6%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 21, 2026
18°C or below
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
2%
24°C
6%
25°C
22%
26°C
46%
27°C
26%
28°C or higher
5%
26°C 46%
27°C 26%
25°C 22%
24°C 6%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 21, 2026
18°C or below
$482 ปริมาณ
<1%
19°C
$492 ปริมาณ
<1%
20°C
$405 ปริมาณ
<1%
21°C
$275 ปริมาณ
<1%
22°C
$132 ปริมาณ
1%
23°C
$115 ปริมาณ
2%
24°C
$630 ปริมาณ
6%
25°C
$1,046 ปริมาณ
22%
26°C
$670 ปริมาณ
46%
27°C
$788 ปริมาณ
26%
28°C or higher
$258 ปริมาณ
5%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 21 will likely peak near 25–26°C under stable high-pressure influence and light winds, aligning with the market's 45.5% implied probability for 26°C as the leading outcome. Recent model runs show modest boundary-layer warming consistent with late-summer climatology, though slight divergences in cloud cover and mixing could shift results into the 25°C or 27°C bins holding 21.5% and 26% respectively. Official resolution relies on IMGW station data, with traders weighting consensus guidance over historical August averages around 22–23°C. Updated runs ahead of market close will refine these probabilities amid typical short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,294วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 21 will likely peak near 25–26°C under stable high-pressure influence and light winds, aligning with the market's 45.5% implied probability for 26°C as the leading outcome. Recent model runs show modest boundary-layer warming consistent with late-summer climatology, though slight divergences in cloud cover and mixing could shift results into the 25°C or 27°C bins holding 21.5% and 26% respectively. Official resolution relies on IMGW station data, with traders weighting consensus guidance over historical August averages around 22–23°C. Updated runs ahead of market close will refine these probabilities amid typical short-range forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$5,294วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 21, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 19, 2026, 12:56 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/pl/warsaw/EPWAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models indicate Warsaw's maximum temperature on August 21 will likely peak near 25–26°C under stable high-pressure influence and light winds, aligning with the market's 45.5% implied probability for 26°C as the leading outcome. Recent model runs show modest boundary-layer warming consistent with late-summer climatology, though slight divergences in cloud cover and mixing could shift results into the 25°C or 27°C bins holding 21.5% and 26% respectively. Official resolution relies on IMGW station data, with traders weighting consensus guidance over historical August averages around 22–23°C. Updated runs ahead of market close will refine these probabilities amid typical short-range forecast uncertainty.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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