Recent U.S. labor market data continue to shape trader views on the peak unemployment rate for 2026. The April 2026 employment report showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent with nonfarm payrolls rising by a modest 115,000, while the broader U-6 measure edged up to 8.2 percent and labor-force participation fell to 61.8 percent. These figures reflect a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium amid slower GDP growth forecasts near 1.8 percent for the year. Analysts expect the rate to climb modestly toward 4.8 percent by year-end as prior employment gains normalize. Key upcoming releases, including the May jobs report and Federal Reserve communications, will provide further signals on whether softening conditions accelerate or stabilize the path for the unemployment peak.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow high will US unemployment go in 2026?
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
$388,693 ปริมาณ
Jan 10, 2026
5.0%
28%
5.5%
14%
6.0%
13%
7.0%
10%
10.0%
5%
$388,693 ปริมาณ
5.0%
$102,277 ปริมาณ
28%
5.5%
$186,719 ปริมาณ
14%
6.0%
$52,180 ปริมาณ
13%
7.0%
$21,511 ปริมาณ
10%
10.0%
$26,006 ปริมาณ
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. labor market data continue to shape trader views on the peak unemployment rate for 2026. The April 2026 employment report showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent with nonfarm payrolls rising by a modest 115,000, while the broader U-6 measure edged up to 8.2 percent and labor-force participation fell to 61.8 percent. These figures reflect a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium amid slower GDP growth forecasts near 1.8 percent for the year. Analysts expect the rate to climb modestly toward 4.8 percent by year-end as prior employment gains normalize. Key upcoming releases, including the May jobs report and Federal Reserve communications, will provide further signals on whether softening conditions accelerate or stabilize the path for the unemployment peak.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$388,693วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent U.S. labor market data continue to shape trader views on the peak unemployment rate for 2026. The April 2026 employment report showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent with nonfarm payrolls rising by a modest 115,000, while the broader U-6 measure edged up to 8.2 percent and labor-force participation fell to 61.8 percent. These figures reflect a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium amid slower GDP growth forecasts near 1.8 percent for the year. Analysts expect the rate to climb modestly toward 4.8 percent by year-end as prior employment gains normalize. Key upcoming releases, including the May jobs report and Federal Reserve communications, will provide further signals on whether softening conditions accelerate or stabilize the path for the unemployment peak.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$388,693วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. labor market data continue to shape trader views on the peak unemployment rate for 2026. The April 2026 employment report showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent with nonfarm payrolls rising by a modest 115,000, while the broader U-6 measure edged up to 8.2 percent and labor-force participation fell to 61.8 percent. These figures reflect a low-hire, low-fire equilibrium amid slower GDP growth forecasts near 1.8 percent for the year. Analysts expect the rate to climb modestly toward 4.8 percent by year-end as prior employment gains normalize. Key upcoming releases, including the May jobs report and Federal Reserve communications, will provide further signals on whether softening conditions accelerate or stabilize the path for the unemployment peak.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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