Elevated early-season tornado counts, driven by multiple severe weather outbreaks in March and April across the Midwest and Plains, have positioned the 1250+ bin as the clear market leader at 81% implied probability. Official tallies through mid-May already exceed 550 confirmed events, well above the 1991–2020 climatological pace, with an EF4 in Oklahoma and several EF3s contributing to the surge. Long-range outlooks from forecasters anticipate a total between 1,050 and 1,250, yet persistent atmospheric patterns favoring strong instability and wind shear suggest the upper end remains attainable as peak May activity unfolds. Traders are pricing in continued above-average convective environments through summer, tempered by the inherent variability of later-season patterns.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 81%
1200–1249 4.0%
1150–1199 3.9%
1050–1099 3.5%
$72,212 ปริมาณ
$72,212 ปริมาณ
Jan 10, 2027
<950
3%
950–999
3%
1000–1049
1%
1050–1099
4%
1100–1149
3%
1150–1199
4%
1200–1249
9%
1250+
81%
1250+ 81%
1200–1249 4.0%
1150–1199 3.9%
1050–1099 3.5%
$72,212 ปริมาณ
$72,212 ปริมาณ
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$22,427 ปริมาณ
3%
950–999
$2,976 ปริมาณ
3%
1000–1049
$2,424 ปริมาณ
1%
1050–1099
$7,841 ปริมาณ
4%
1100–1149
$2,041 ปริมาณ
3%
1150–1199
$2,650 ปริมาณ
4%
1200–1249
$15,173 ปริมาณ
9%
1250+
$16,681 ปริมาณ
81%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated early-season tornado counts, driven by multiple severe weather outbreaks in March and April across the Midwest and Plains, have positioned the 1250+ bin as the clear market leader at 81% implied probability. Official tallies through mid-May already exceed 550 confirmed events, well above the 1991–2020 climatological pace, with an EF4 in Oklahoma and several EF3s contributing to the surge. Long-range outlooks from forecasters anticipate a total between 1,050 and 1,250, yet persistent atmospheric patterns favoring strong instability and wind shear suggest the upper end remains attainable as peak May activity unfolds. Traders are pricing in continued above-average convective environments through summer, tempered by the inherent variability of later-season patterns.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$72,212วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 10, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Elevated early-season tornado counts, driven by multiple severe weather outbreaks in March and April across the Midwest and Plains, have positioned the 1250+ bin as the clear market leader at 81% implied probability. Official tallies through mid-May already exceed 550 confirmed events, well above the 1991–2020 climatological pace, with an EF4 in Oklahoma and several EF3s contributing to the surge. Long-range outlooks from forecasters anticipate a total between 1,050 and 1,250, yet persistent atmospheric patterns favoring strong instability and wind shear suggest the upper end remains attainable as peak May activity unfolds. Traders are pricing in continued above-average convective environments through summer, tempered by the inherent variability of later-season patterns.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$72,212วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 10, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 24, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Elevated early-season tornado counts, driven by multiple severe weather outbreaks in March and April across the Midwest and Plains, have positioned the 1250+ bin as the clear market leader at 81% implied probability. Official tallies through mid-May already exceed 550 confirmed events, well above the 1991–2020 climatological pace, with an EF4 in Oklahoma and several EF3s contributing to the surge. Long-range outlooks from forecasters anticipate a total between 1,050 and 1,250, yet persistent atmospheric patterns favoring strong instability and wind shear suggest the upper end remains attainable as peak May activity unfolds. Traders are pricing in continued above-average convective environments through summer, tempered by the inherent variability of later-season patterns.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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