El Niño conditions, now officially declared by NOAA with strengthening sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, represent the dominant driver suppressing classic severe weather setups across the central and southern U.S. plains during July. Persistent drought and depleted low-level moisture over the High Plains further reduce atmospheric instability and shear favorable for tornadogenesis, consistent with historical El Niño analogs that shift activity northward or eastward while lowering overall counts below the long-term July average of roughly 119. Trader consensus favoring sub-130 outcomes reflects these patterns alongside recent quiet June conditions and model indications of limited jet stream amplification. Higher buckets remain possible only if an unexpected pattern shift enhances Gulf moisture return or triggers atypical northern outbreaks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many Tornadoes in the US in July?
How many Tornadoes in the US in July?
<100 41%
100–129 38%
310+ 26%
160–189 25%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 1, 2026
<100
41%
100–129
38%
130–159
25%
160–189
25%
190–219
25%
220–249
23%
250–279
22%
280–310
25%
310+
26%
<100 41%
100–129 38%
310+ 26%
160–189 25%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 1, 2026
<100
$30 ปริมาณ
41%
100–129
$44 ปริมาณ
38%
130–159
$78 ปริมาณ
25%
160–189
$40 ปริมาณ
25%
190–219
$41 ปริมาณ
25%
220–249
$33 ปริมาณ
23%
250–279
$53 ปริมาณ
22%
280–310
$131 ปริมาณ
25%
310+
$40 ปริมาณ
26%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.El Niño conditions, now officially declared by NOAA with strengthening sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, represent the dominant driver suppressing classic severe weather setups across the central and southern U.S. plains during July. Persistent drought and depleted low-level moisture over the High Plains further reduce atmospheric instability and shear favorable for tornadogenesis, consistent with historical El Niño analogs that shift activity northward or eastward while lowering overall counts below the long-term July average of roughly 119. Trader consensus favoring sub-130 outcomes reflects these patterns alongside recent quiet June conditions and model indications of limited jet stream amplification. Higher buckets remain possible only if an unexpected pattern shift enhances Gulf moisture return or triggers atypical northern outbreaks.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$489วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.El Niño conditions, now officially declared by NOAA with strengthening sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, represent the dominant driver suppressing classic severe weather setups across the central and southern U.S. plains during July. Persistent drought and depleted low-level moisture over the High Plains further reduce atmospheric instability and shear favorable for tornadogenesis, consistent with historical El Niño analogs that shift activity northward or eastward while lowering overall counts below the long-term July average of roughly 119. Trader consensus favoring sub-130 outcomes reflects these patterns alongside recent quiet June conditions and model indications of limited jet stream amplification. Higher buckets remain possible only if an unexpected pattern shift enhances Gulf moisture return or triggers atypical northern outbreaks.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on August 10, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$489วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 9, 2026, 1:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions, now officially declared by NOAA with strengthening sea surface temperature anomalies in the equatorial Pacific, represent the dominant driver suppressing classic severe weather setups across the central and southern U.S. plains during July. Persistent drought and depleted low-level moisture over the High Plains further reduce atmospheric instability and shear favorable for tornadogenesis, consistent with historical El Niño analogs that shift activity northward or eastward while lowering overall counts below the long-term July average of roughly 119. Trader consensus favoring sub-130 outcomes reflects these patterns alongside recent quiet June conditions and model indications of limited jet stream amplification. Higher buckets remain possible only if an unexpected pattern shift enhances Gulf moisture return or triggers atypical northern outbreaks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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