Trader consensus on Polymarket favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 at 59% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season per Storm Prediction Center preliminary data, with around 560 tornadoes confirmed through early May—well above the historical year-to-date average of roughly 400. Multiple outbreaks, including a violent EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma on April 23 and widespread activity April 17–28, have front-loaded the count, exceeding norms by 80% through March alone according to NOAA monthly reports. While final tallies typically revise downward 10–20%, the strong spring pace positions totals above the long-term annual baseline of about 1200, despite an emerging El Niño pattern that may temper summer activity. Traders await SPC convective outlooks through peak May–June for further shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 63%
1150–1199 16.9%
1000–1049 16.0%
950–999 4.1%
$71,894 ปริมาณ
$71,894 ปริมาณ
Jan 10, 2027
<950
<1%
950–999
4%
1000–1049
16%
1050–1099
16%
1100–1149
2%
1150–1199
23%
1200–1249
30%
1250+
66%
1250+ 63%
1150–1199 16.9%
1000–1049 16.0%
950–999 4.1%
$71,894 ปริมาณ
$71,894 ปริมาณ
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$22,411 ปริมาณ
<1%
950–999
$2,966 ปริมาณ
4%
1000–1049
$2,424 ปริมาณ
16%
1050–1099
$7,841 ปริมาณ
16%
1100–1149
$2,005 ปริมาณ
2%
1150–1199
$2,452 ปริมาณ
23%
1200–1249
$15,173 ปริมาณ
30%
1250+
$16,622 ปริมาณ
66%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 at 59% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season per Storm Prediction Center preliminary data, with around 560 tornadoes confirmed through early May—well above the historical year-to-date average of roughly 400. Multiple outbreaks, including a violent EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma on April 23 and widespread activity April 17–28, have front-loaded the count, exceeding norms by 80% through March alone according to NOAA monthly reports. While final tallies typically revise downward 10–20%, the strong spring pace positions totals above the long-term annual baseline of about 1200, despite an emerging El Niño pattern that may temper summer activity. Traders await SPC convective outlooks through peak May–June for further shifts.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$71,894วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 10, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Trader consensus on Polymarket favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 at 59% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season per Storm Prediction Center preliminary data, with around 560 tornadoes confirmed through early May—well above the historical year-to-date average of roughly 400. Multiple outbreaks, including a violent EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma on April 23 and widespread activity April 17–28, have front-loaded the count, exceeding norms by 80% through March alone according to NOAA monthly reports. While final tallies typically revise downward 10–20%, the strong spring pace positions totals above the long-term annual baseline of about 1200, despite an emerging El Niño pattern that may temper summer activity. Traders await SPC convective outlooks through peak May–June for further shifts.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$71,894วันสิ้นสุด
Jan 10, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors over 1250 US tornadoes in 2026 at 59% implied probability, driven by an exceptionally active early season per Storm Prediction Center preliminary data, with around 560 tornadoes confirmed through early May—well above the historical year-to-date average of roughly 400. Multiple outbreaks, including a violent EF4 near Enid, Oklahoma on April 23 and widespread activity April 17–28, have front-loaded the count, exceeding norms by 80% through March alone according to NOAA monthly reports. While final tallies typically revise downward 10–20%, the strong spring pace positions totals above the long-term annual baseline of about 1200, despite an emerging El Niño pattern that may temper summer activity. Traders await SPC convective outlooks through peak May–June for further shifts.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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