Ongoing southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity is the main driver keeping Manila’s peak temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms, with PAGASA forecasts showing widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms through August 16 that limit solar heating. Long-term August averages place daytime maxima around 31°C, yet persistent moisture and reduced insolation have produced recent highs of 29–31°C. These conditions create the strongest market support for 30°C (46.5% implied probability), followed by 31°C (29.5%), while suppressing odds of 32°C or higher. Updated model guidance and any shifts in monsoon intensity over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could alter the distribution before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Manila on August 16?
Highest temperature in Manila on August 16?
30°C 48%
31°C 28%
29°C 19%
32°C 5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
1%
28°C
5%
29°C
19%
30°C
48%
31°C
28%
32°C
5%
33°C
1%
34°C or higher
1%
30°C 48%
31°C 28%
29°C 19%
32°C 5%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 16, 2026
24°C or below
$300 ปริมาณ
<1%
25°C
$322 ปริมาณ
<1%
26°C
$99 ปริมาณ
1%
27°C
$228 ปริมาณ
1%
28°C
$560 ปริมาณ
5%
29°C
$1,184 ปริมาณ
19%
30°C
$682 ปริมาณ
48%
31°C
$639 ปริมาณ
28%
32°C
$273 ปริมาณ
5%
33°C
$144 ปริมาณ
1%
34°C or higher
$103 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity is the main driver keeping Manila’s peak temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms, with PAGASA forecasts showing widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms through August 16 that limit solar heating. Long-term August averages place daytime maxima around 31°C, yet persistent moisture and reduced insolation have produced recent highs of 29–31°C. These conditions create the strongest market support for 30°C (46.5% implied probability), followed by 31°C (29.5%), while suppressing odds of 32°C or higher. Updated model guidance and any shifts in monsoon intensity over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could alter the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,533วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Ongoing southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity is the main driver keeping Manila’s peak temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms, with PAGASA forecasts showing widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms through August 16 that limit solar heating. Long-term August averages place daytime maxima around 31°C, yet persistent moisture and reduced insolation have produced recent highs of 29–31°C. These conditions create the strongest market support for 30°C (46.5% implied probability), followed by 31°C (29.5%), while suppressing odds of 32°C or higher. Updated model guidance and any shifts in monsoon intensity over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could alter the distribution before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$4,533วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 16, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ETแหล่งข้อมูลการตัดสินผล
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLLResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ongoing southwest monsoon (Habagat) activity is the main driver keeping Manila’s peak temperatures near or slightly below seasonal norms, with PAGASA forecasts showing widespread cloud cover, scattered showers, and thunderstorms through August 16 that limit solar heating. Long-term August averages place daytime maxima around 31°C, yet persistent moisture and reduced insolation have produced recent highs of 29–31°C. These conditions create the strongest market support for 30°C (46.5% implied probability), followed by 31°C (29.5%), while suppressing odds of 32°C or higher. Updated model guidance and any shifts in monsoon intensity over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could alter the distribution before resolution.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
ระวังลิงก์ภายนอก
คำถามที่พบบ่อย