Traders have priced 31°C at a 99.9% implied probability for Hong Kong’s official maximum temperature on August 15 because Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and real-time observations align precisely with this threshold. Typical August conditions feature daytime highs of 31–32°C amid high humidity and monsoon influences, with current model runs and station data showing no deviation into the 32°C+ or sub-30°C range. The dominant consensus reflects aggregated trader assessment of stable atmospheric patterns, including limited cloud cover and light winds that prevent significant cooling or intensification. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-day shift in steering flow, localized convective cooling, or a revision in the HKO’s official recorded maximum at its headquarters station.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วHighest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?
Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 15?
31°C 99.8%
32°C <1%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
$255,523 ปริมาณ
$255,523 ปริมาณ
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
100%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C
<1%
36°C
<1%
37°C or higher
<1%
31°C 99.8%
32°C <1%
27°C or below <1%
28°C <1%
$255,523 ปริมาณ
$255,523 ปริมาณ
Aug 15, 2026
27°C or below
$4,885 ปริมาณ
<1%
28°C
$33,382 ปริมาณ
<1%
29°C
$32,520 ปริมาณ
<1%
30°C
$24,357 ปริมาณ
<1%
31°C
$34,722 ปริมาณ
100%
32°C
$42,702 ปริมาณ
<1%
33°C
$30,684 ปริมาณ
<1%
34°C
$24,299 ปริมาณ
<1%
35°C
$4,079 ปริมาณ
<1%
36°C
$2,633 ปริมาณ
<1%
37°C or higher
$21,260 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders have priced 31°C at a 99.9% implied probability for Hong Kong’s official maximum temperature on August 15 because Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and real-time observations align precisely with this threshold. Typical August conditions feature daytime highs of 31–32°C amid high humidity and monsoon influences, with current model runs and station data showing no deviation into the 32°C+ or sub-30°C range. The dominant consensus reflects aggregated trader assessment of stable atmospheric patterns, including limited cloud cover and light winds that prevent significant cooling or intensification. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-day shift in steering flow, localized convective cooling, or a revision in the HKO’s official recorded maximum at its headquarters station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$255,523วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Traders have priced 31°C at a 99.9% implied probability for Hong Kong’s official maximum temperature on August 15 because Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and real-time observations align precisely with this threshold. Typical August conditions feature daytime highs of 31–32°C amid high humidity and monsoon influences, with current model runs and station data showing no deviation into the 32°C+ or sub-30°C range. The dominant consensus reflects aggregated trader assessment of stable atmospheric patterns, including limited cloud cover and light winds that prevent significant cooling or intensification. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-day shift in steering flow, localized convective cooling, or a revision in the HKO’s official recorded maximum at its headquarters station.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm
This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$255,523วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 15, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Aug 13, 2026, 12:56 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have priced 31°C at a 99.9% implied probability for Hong Kong’s official maximum temperature on August 15 because Hong Kong Observatory forecasts and real-time observations align precisely with this threshold. Typical August conditions feature daytime highs of 31–32°C amid high humidity and monsoon influences, with current model runs and station data showing no deviation into the 32°C+ or sub-30°C range. The dominant consensus reflects aggregated trader assessment of stable atmospheric patterns, including limited cloud cover and light winds that prevent significant cooling or intensification. A realistic challenge would require an unexpected late-day shift in steering flow, localized convective cooling, or a revision in the HKO’s official recorded maximum at its headquarters station.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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