Developing El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, with an 82-98% probability of emergence by mid-2026 and potential for strong or very strong intensity, represent the dominant near-term driver of trader positioning on July 2026 global temperature anomalies. Official outlooks from NOAA and WMO highlight rapid sea-surface warming that typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C or more to global means, layered atop the long-term anthropogenic trend now placing annual averages near 1.3–1.9 °C above 1850–1900 baselines. Model consensus on peak Niño3.4 strength remains wide, creating tight spreads across 1.10–1.29 °C bins, while July-specific resolution will hinge on Northern Hemisphere summer teleconnections and any revisions to seasonal forecasts released in coming weeks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วJuly 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
July 2026 Temperature Increase (ºC)
1.20–1.24ºC 45%
<1.10ºC 44%
1.10–1.14ºC 44%
1.25–1.29ºC 44%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
44%
1.10–1.14ºC
44%
1.15–1.19ºC
44%
1.20–1.24ºC
45%
1.25–1.29ºC
44%
>1.29ºC
44%
1.20–1.24ºC 45%
<1.10ºC 44%
1.10–1.14ºC 44%
1.25–1.29ºC 44%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Aug 1, 2026
<1.10ºC
$59 ปริมาณ
44%
1.10–1.14ºC
$49 ปริมาณ
44%
1.15–1.19ºC
$41 ปริมาณ
44%
1.20–1.24ºC
$45 ปริมาณ
45%
1.25–1.29ºC
$62 ปริมาณ
44%
>1.29ºC
$47 ปริมาณ
44%
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Developing El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, with an 82-98% probability of emergence by mid-2026 and potential for strong or very strong intensity, represent the dominant near-term driver of trader positioning on July 2026 global temperature anomalies. Official outlooks from NOAA and WMO highlight rapid sea-surface warming that typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C or more to global means, layered atop the long-term anthropogenic trend now placing annual averages near 1.3–1.9 °C above 1850–1900 baselines. Model consensus on peak Niño3.4 strength remains wide, creating tight spreads across 1.10–1.29 °C bins, while July-specific resolution will hinge on Northern Hemisphere summer teleconnections and any revisions to seasonal forecasts released in coming weeks.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$303วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.Developing El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, with an 82-98% probability of emergence by mid-2026 and potential for strong or very strong intensity, represent the dominant near-term driver of trader positioning on July 2026 global temperature anomalies. Official outlooks from NOAA and WMO highlight rapid sea-surface warming that typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C or more to global means, layered atop the long-term anthropogenic trend now placing annual averages near 1.3–1.9 °C above 1850–1900 baselines. Model consensus on peak Niño3.4 strength remains wide, creating tight spreads across 1.10–1.29 °C bins, while July-specific resolution will hinge on Northern Hemisphere summer teleconnections and any revisions to seasonal forecasts released in coming weeks.
This market will resolve according to the value reported by the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 when it is released.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
An anomaly within a named bracket for July 2026 is necessary and sufficient to resolve this market immediately once the data becomes available, regardless of whether the figure for July 2026 is later revised.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figure found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" in the row "2026" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt).
If NASA’s “Global Temperature Index” is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by September 1, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$303วันสิ้นสุด
Aug 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jun 9, 2026, 1:11 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Developing El Niño conditions in the tropical Pacific, with an 82-98% probability of emergence by mid-2026 and potential for strong or very strong intensity, represent the dominant near-term driver of trader positioning on July 2026 global temperature anomalies. Official outlooks from NOAA and WMO highlight rapid sea-surface warming that typically adds 0.1–0.2 °C or more to global means, layered atop the long-term anthropogenic trend now placing annual averages near 1.3–1.9 °C above 1850–1900 baselines. Model consensus on peak Niño3.4 strength remains wide, creating tight spreads across 1.10–1.29 °C bins, while July-specific resolution will hinge on Northern Hemisphere summer teleconnections and any revisions to seasonal forecasts released in coming weeks.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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