Recent developments show a developing El Niño event boosting baseline global temperatures alongside regional heatwaves across Europe and the US, keeping daily anomalies elevated but variable. July 1 saw notable European extremes, such as the Czech Republic's national record, while subsequent days featured shifting atmospheric patterns that moderated or redistributed heat. With all outcomes at equal 50% market-implied odds, trader sentiment reflects genuine uncertainty in distinguishing the precise ranking, driven by natural day-to-day fluctuations in global mean surface temperature from circulation patterns, land-sea contrasts, and reanalysis dataset margins (e.g., ERA5). Upcoming refined observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will clarify whether any of these days surpasses prior records set in 2023–2024.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
2026 July 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
1st hottest 52%
3rd hottest 40%
2nd hottest 28%
4th or lower 24%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 31, 2026
1st hottest
52%
2nd hottest
28%
3rd hottest
40%
4th or lower
24%
1st hottest 52%
3rd hottest 40%
2nd hottest 28%
4th or lower 24%
ใหม่
ใหม่
Jul 31, 2026
1st hottest
$1 ปริมาณ
52%
2nd hottest
$0 ปริมาณ
28%
3rd hottest
$0 ปริมาณ
40%
4th or lower
$0 ปริมาณ
24%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent developments show a developing El Niño event boosting baseline global temperatures alongside regional heatwaves across Europe and the US, keeping daily anomalies elevated but variable. July 1 saw notable European extremes, such as the Czech Republic's national record, while subsequent days featured shifting atmospheric patterns that moderated or redistributed heat. With all outcomes at equal 50% market-implied odds, trader sentiment reflects genuine uncertainty in distinguishing the precise ranking, driven by natural day-to-day fluctuations in global mean surface temperature from circulation patterns, land-sea contrasts, and reanalysis dataset margins (e.g., ERA5). Upcoming refined observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will clarify whether any of these days surpasses prior records set in 2023–2024.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Recent developments show a developing El Niño event boosting baseline global temperatures alongside regional heatwaves across Europe and the US, keeping daily anomalies elevated but variable. July 1 saw notable European extremes, such as the Czech Republic's national record, while subsequent days featured shifting atmospheric patterns that moderated or redistributed heat. With all outcomes at equal 50% market-implied odds, trader sentiment reflects genuine uncertainty in distinguishing the precise ranking, driven by natural day-to-day fluctuations in global mean surface temperature from circulation patterns, land-sea contrasts, and reanalysis dataset margins (e.g., ERA5). Upcoming refined observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will clarify whether any of these days surpasses prior records set in 2023–2024.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for July 2026 versus the data points available for all other Julys on record.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If July 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jul" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for July 2026 is provided by NASA by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1วันสิ้นสุด
Jul 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jul 6, 2026, 2:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent developments show a developing El Niño event boosting baseline global temperatures alongside regional heatwaves across Europe and the US, keeping daily anomalies elevated but variable. July 1 saw notable European extremes, such as the Czech Republic's national record, while subsequent days featured shifting atmospheric patterns that moderated or redistributed heat. With all outcomes at equal 50% market-implied odds, trader sentiment reflects genuine uncertainty in distinguishing the precise ranking, driven by natural day-to-day fluctuations in global mean surface temperature from circulation patterns, land-sea contrasts, and reanalysis dataset margins (e.g., ERA5). Upcoming refined observational data from agencies like NOAA and Copernicus will clarify whether any of these days surpasses prior records set in 2023–2024.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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