Trader consensus reflects 98.7% implied probability against a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because extensive near-Earth object detection networks, including NASA’s planetary defense systems and ground-based optical and radar arrays, have identified no qualifying asteroids on collision courses. Continuous surveys by facilities like Pan-STARRS and the Catalina Sky Survey maintain comprehensive catalogs that flag bodies large enough to produce megaton-scale yields well before impact. These technologies enable precise orbital tracking and early-warning protocols refined over decades. While smaller undetected meteoroids occur, objects capable of 1-megaton energy release would register in existing datasets. Only extreme technical failures in data processing pipelines or unprecedented observational blind spots could alter outcomes, scenarios viewed as remote given current system reliability and redundancy.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1% โอกาส
$116,329 ปริมาณ
$116,329 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
1% โอกาส
$116,329 ปริมาณ
$116,329 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus reflects 98.7% implied probability against a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because extensive near-Earth object detection networks, including NASA’s planetary defense systems and ground-based optical and radar arrays, have identified no qualifying asteroids on collision courses. Continuous surveys by facilities like Pan-STARRS and the Catalina Sky Survey maintain comprehensive catalogs that flag bodies large enough to produce megaton-scale yields well before impact. These technologies enable precise orbital tracking and early-warning protocols refined over decades. While smaller undetected meteoroids occur, objects capable of 1-megaton energy release would register in existing datasets. Only extreme technical failures in data processing pipelines or unprecedented observational blind spots could alter outcomes, scenarios viewed as remote given current system reliability and redundancy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$116,329วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus reflects 98.7% implied probability against a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because extensive near-Earth object detection networks, including NASA’s planetary defense systems and ground-based optical and radar arrays, have identified no qualifying asteroids on collision courses. Continuous surveys by facilities like Pan-STARRS and the Catalina Sky Survey maintain comprehensive catalogs that flag bodies large enough to produce megaton-scale yields well before impact. These technologies enable precise orbital tracking and early-warning protocols refined over decades. While smaller undetected meteoroids occur, objects capable of 1-megaton energy release would register in existing datasets. Only extreme technical failures in data processing pipelines or unprecedented observational blind spots could alter outcomes, scenarios viewed as remote given current system reliability and redundancy.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$116,329วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus reflects 98.7% implied probability against a 1-megaton meteor strike in 2026 because extensive near-Earth object detection networks, including NASA’s planetary defense systems and ground-based optical and radar arrays, have identified no qualifying asteroids on collision courses. Continuous surveys by facilities like Pan-STARRS and the Catalina Sky Survey maintain comprehensive catalogs that flag bodies large enough to produce megaton-scale yields well before impact. These technologies enable precise orbital tracking and early-warning protocols refined over decades. While smaller undetected meteoroids occur, objects capable of 1-megaton energy release would register in existing datasets. Only extreme technical failures in data processing pipelines or unprecedented observational blind spots could alter outcomes, scenarios viewed as remote given current system reliability and redundancy.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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