Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain confidence—no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) tracked by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system pose any collision risk for 2026, let alone one delivering 1 megaton TNT-equivalent energy, equivalent to a ~15-25 meter diameter bolide airburst. Historical data from CNEOS fireball records show megaton-scale events occur roughly once per century, with the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (~0.5 megatons) as the largest in modern observations; recent safe flybys of small asteroids like 2026 JH2 (50-100 feet across) reinforce this low baseline risk. Realistic shifts could arise from an undiscovered, sunward-approaching sporadic meteoroid, though advanced infrared surveys like NEO Surveyor minimize such blind spots—watch for ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
$106,001 ปริมาณ
$106,001 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$106,001 ปริมาณ
$106,001 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain confidence—no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) tracked by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system pose any collision risk for 2026, let alone one delivering 1 megaton TNT-equivalent energy, equivalent to a ~15-25 meter diameter bolide airburst. Historical data from CNEOS fireball records show megaton-scale events occur roughly once per century, with the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (~0.5 megatons) as the largest in modern observations; recent safe flybys of small asteroids like 2026 JH2 (50-100 feet across) reinforce this low baseline risk. Realistic shifts could arise from an undiscovered, sunward-approaching sporadic meteoroid, though advanced infrared surveys like NEO Surveyor minimize such blind spots—watch for ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$106,001วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain confidence—no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) tracked by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system pose any collision risk for 2026, let alone one delivering 1 megaton TNT-equivalent energy, equivalent to a ~15-25 meter diameter bolide airburst. Historical data from CNEOS fireball records show megaton-scale events occur roughly once per century, with the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (~0.5 megatons) as the largest in modern observations; recent safe flybys of small asteroids like 2026 JH2 (50-100 feet across) reinforce this low baseline risk. Realistic shifts could arise from an undiscovered, sunward-approaching sporadic meteoroid, though advanced infrared surveys like NEO Surveyor minimize such blind spots—watch for ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 1 megaton (1000 kilotons) of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$106,001วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 2:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects near-certain confidence—no known near-Earth objects (NEOs) tracked by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) Sentry system pose any collision risk for 2026, let alone one delivering 1 megaton TNT-equivalent energy, equivalent to a ~15-25 meter diameter bolide airburst. Historical data from CNEOS fireball records show megaton-scale events occur roughly once per century, with the 2013 Chelyabinsk event (~0.5 megatons) as the largest in modern observations; recent safe flybys of small asteroids like 2026 JH2 (50-100 feet across) reinforce this low baseline risk. Realistic shifts could arise from an undiscovered, sunward-approaching sporadic meteoroid, though advanced infrared surveys like NEO Surveyor minimize such blind spots—watch for ongoing CNEOS updates through year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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