No large volcanic eruptions meeting the VEI ≥4 threshold—defined by at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 kilometers—have occurred in 2026 through mid-May, driving the market's strong preference for zero events at 59.5% implied probability. The Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program have documented 47 smaller eruptions so far this year, yet recent weekly reports show only sub-threshold activity such as brief ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kilauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira without sufficient ejecta volume. This aligns with the long-term average of roughly 0.6 VEI ≥4 eruptions annually, underscoring the inherent unpredictability of magmatic recharge and the value of continued monitoring updates through year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วภูเขาไฟระเบิดขนาดใหญ่ (VEI ≥ 4) กี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
ภูเขาไฟระเบิดขนาดใหญ่ (VEI ≥ 4) กี่ครั้งในปี 2026?
0 60%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 1.1%
$1,078,895 ปริมาณ
$1,078,895 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0
60%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 60%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 1.1%
$1,078,895 ปริมาณ
$1,078,895 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
0
$477,307 ปริมาณ
60%
1
$260,191 ปริมาณ
35%
2
$32,241 ปริมาณ
4%
3
$26,240 ปริมาณ
1%
4
$24,441 ปริมาณ
<1%
5+
$258,475 ปริมาณ
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No large volcanic eruptions meeting the VEI ≥4 threshold—defined by at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 kilometers—have occurred in 2026 through mid-May, driving the market's strong preference for zero events at 59.5% implied probability. The Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program have documented 47 smaller eruptions so far this year, yet recent weekly reports show only sub-threshold activity such as brief ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kilauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira without sufficient ejecta volume. This aligns with the long-term average of roughly 0.6 VEI ≥4 eruptions annually, underscoring the inherent unpredictability of magmatic recharge and the value of continued monitoring updates through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,078,895วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.No large volcanic eruptions meeting the VEI ≥4 threshold—defined by at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 kilometers—have occurred in 2026 through mid-May, driving the market's strong preference for zero events at 59.5% implied probability. The Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program have documented 47 smaller eruptions so far this year, yet recent weekly reports show only sub-threshold activity such as brief ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kilauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira without sufficient ejecta volume. This aligns with the long-term average of roughly 0.6 VEI ≥4 eruptions annually, underscoring the inherent unpredictability of magmatic recharge and the value of continued monitoring updates through year-end.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$1,078,895วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...No large volcanic eruptions meeting the VEI ≥4 threshold—defined by at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and plume heights exceeding 10 kilometers—have occurred in 2026 through mid-May, driving the market's strong preference for zero events at 59.5% implied probability. The Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program have documented 47 smaller eruptions so far this year, yet recent weekly reports show only sub-threshold activity such as brief ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kilauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira without sufficient ejecta volume. This aligns with the long-term average of roughly 0.6 VEI ≥4 eruptions annually, underscoring the inherent unpredictability of magmatic recharge and the value of continued monitoring updates through year-end.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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