No confirmed VEI ≥4 eruptions have occurred through mid-August 2026, according to Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program records listing dozens of lower-intensity events but none meeting the explosivity threshold. This absence aligns with the low historical frequency of such eruptions—typically fewer than one per year on average—and supports the market's strong preference for zero events. Remaining months carry uncertainty from potential intensification at restless systems, though official monitoring shows no immediate signals of imminent large-scale activity. Updated weekly volcanic reports and any new plume or deposit data will refine the outlook before year-end resolution.