Traders assign a 93.6% implied probability to no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 due to the low annual likelihood of such colossal events, which eject 10–100 km³ of material and recur globally roughly once or twice per century based on Holocene records. The most recent example, Pinatubo in 1991, underscores this pattern, while current Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data show dozens of ongoing smaller eruptions but none approaching Plinian-scale explosivity or caldera-forming thresholds. Official monitoring by agencies like USGS reveals no accelerated unrest at high-risk systems that would signal rapid magma chamber pressurization. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden model revisions detecting cryptic precursors at remote or poorly instrumented volcanoes, though such developments remain statistically rare within a single calendar year.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
6% โอกาส
$127,900 ปริมาณ
$127,900 ปริมาณ
Mar 31, 2027
6% โอกาส
$127,900 ปริมาณ
$127,900 ปริมาณ
Mar 31, 2027
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Traders assign a 93.6% implied probability to no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 due to the low annual likelihood of such colossal events, which eject 10–100 km³ of material and recur globally roughly once or twice per century based on Holocene records. The most recent example, Pinatubo in 1991, underscores this pattern, while current Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data show dozens of ongoing smaller eruptions but none approaching Plinian-scale explosivity or caldera-forming thresholds. Official monitoring by agencies like USGS reveals no accelerated unrest at high-risk systems that would signal rapid magma chamber pressurization. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden model revisions detecting cryptic precursors at remote or poorly instrumented volcanoes, though such developments remain statistically rare within a single calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$127,900วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Traders assign a 93.6% implied probability to no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 due to the low annual likelihood of such colossal events, which eject 10–100 km³ of material and recur globally roughly once or twice per century based on Holocene records. The most recent example, Pinatubo in 1991, underscores this pattern, while current Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data show dozens of ongoing smaller eruptions but none approaching Plinian-scale explosivity or caldera-forming thresholds. Official monitoring by agencies like USGS reveals no accelerated unrest at high-risk systems that would signal rapid magma chamber pressurization. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden model revisions detecting cryptic precursors at remote or poorly instrumented volcanoes, though such developments remain statistically rare within a single calendar year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural volcanic eruption with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 6 or higher occurs between the market's creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the ‘VEI 6’ figure for 2026 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$127,900วันสิ้นสุด
Mar 31, 2027ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 93.6% implied probability to no VEI ≥6 eruption in 2026 due to the low annual likelihood of such colossal events, which eject 10–100 km³ of material and recur globally roughly once or twice per century based on Holocene records. The most recent example, Pinatubo in 1991, underscores this pattern, while current Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program data show dozens of ongoing smaller eruptions but none approaching Plinian-scale explosivity or caldera-forming thresholds. Official monitoring by agencies like USGS reveals no accelerated unrest at high-risk systems that would signal rapid magma chamber pressurization. Realistic shifts could arise from sudden model revisions detecting cryptic precursors at remote or poorly instrumented volcanoes, though such developments remain statistically rare within a single calendar year.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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