SpaceX Starship's extended testing phase and recent delays position the sub-5 launch outcome as the market favorite for 2026. The vehicle completed its 11th overall flight in October 2025 and has remained grounded since, with the first 2026 test now targeted for May 19 using the new V3 architecture, upgraded Raptor engines, and a second launch pad at Starbase. While static-fire tests in early May validated the 33-engine booster, the eight-month hiatus underscores ongoing challenges in achieving rapid reusability and high launch cadence. Traders appear to weigh these technical milestones against the vehicle's history of incremental progress, where each new block introduces significant redesigns that historically extend timelines before scaling operations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วในปี 2026 มีการเปิดตัวยานอวกาศ SpaceX Starship กี่ลำ?
ในปี 2026 มีการเปิดตัวยานอวกาศ SpaceX Starship กี่ลำ?
น้อยกว่า 5 53%
5-6 32%
7-8 4.1%
9-10 2.4%
$449,768 ปริมาณ
$449,768 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
น้อยกว่า 5
53%
5-6
24%
7-8
4%
9-10
2%
11-12
2%
13-14
1%
15-16
2%
>16
2%
น้อยกว่า 5 53%
5-6 32%
7-8 4.1%
9-10 2.4%
$449,768 ปริมาณ
$449,768 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
น้อยกว่า 5
$90,615 ปริมาณ
53%
5-6
$108,322 ปริมาณ
24%
7-8
$152,207 ปริมาณ
4%
9-10
$55,882 ปริมาณ
2%
11-12
$3,765 ปริมาณ
2%
13-14
$4,747 ปริมาณ
1%
15-16
$25,181 ปริมาณ
2%
>16
$9,048 ปริมาณ
2%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX Starship's extended testing phase and recent delays position the sub-5 launch outcome as the market favorite for 2026. The vehicle completed its 11th overall flight in October 2025 and has remained grounded since, with the first 2026 test now targeted for May 19 using the new V3 architecture, upgraded Raptor engines, and a second launch pad at Starbase. While static-fire tests in early May validated the 33-engine booster, the eight-month hiatus underscores ongoing challenges in achieving rapid reusability and high launch cadence. Traders appear to weigh these technical milestones against the vehicle's history of incremental progress, where each new block introduces significant redesigns that historically extend timelines before scaling operations.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$449,768วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX Starship's extended testing phase and recent delays position the sub-5 launch outcome as the market favorite for 2026. The vehicle completed its 11th overall flight in October 2025 and has remained grounded since, with the first 2026 test now targeted for May 19 using the new V3 architecture, upgraded Raptor engines, and a second launch pad at Starbase. While static-fire tests in early May validated the 33-engine booster, the eight-month hiatus underscores ongoing challenges in achieving rapid reusability and high launch cadence. Traders appear to weigh these technical milestones against the vehicle's history of incremental progress, where each new block introduces significant redesigns that historically extend timelines before scaling operations.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$449,768วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX Starship's extended testing phase and recent delays position the sub-5 launch outcome as the market favorite for 2026. The vehicle completed its 11th overall flight in October 2025 and has remained grounded since, with the first 2026 test now targeted for May 19 using the new V3 architecture, upgraded Raptor engines, and a second launch pad at Starbase. While static-fire tests in early May validated the 33-engine booster, the eight-month hiatus underscores ongoing challenges in achieving rapid reusability and high launch cadence. Traders appear to weigh these technical milestones against the vehicle's history of incremental progress, where each new block introduces significant redesigns that historically extend timelines before scaling operations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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