SpaceX has completed two Starship V3 test flights in 2026 so far—Flights 12 and 13 in May and July—both achieving transatmospheric trajectories and key milestones such as stage separation and payload deployment. Trader consensus favoring 5-6 total launches reflects expectations of gradual cadence growth amid ongoing FAA licensing reviews and iterative hardware refinements, including recent engine swaps and booster recovery attempts. Plans for Flight 14 by late August, with potential tower catch of the upper stage, represent the next near-term catalyst, though historical patterns of scrub rates and regulatory timelines constrain faster scaling. Higher outcome probabilities remain low due to the technical and approval hurdles still required before routine operations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วในปี 2026 มีการเปิดตัวยานอวกาศ SpaceX Starship กี่ลำ?
ในปี 2026 มีการเปิดตัวยานอวกาศ SpaceX Starship กี่ลำ?
5-6 62%
น้อยกว่า 5 34%
7-8 8.3%
11-12 3.4%
$492,887 ปริมาณ
$492,887 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
น้อยกว่า 5
34%
5-6
62%
7-8
8%
9-10
3%
11-12
3%
13-14
<1%
15-16
<1%
>16
1%
5-6 62%
น้อยกว่า 5 34%
7-8 8.3%
11-12 3.4%
$492,887 ปริมาณ
$492,887 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
น้อยกว่า 5
$99,128 ปริมาณ
34%
5-6
$113,791 ปริมาณ
62%
7-8
$158,458 ปริมาณ
8%
9-10
$61,464 ปริมาณ
3%
11-12
$8,371 ปริมาณ
3%
13-14
$9,146 ปริมาณ
<1%
15-16
$30,046 ปริมาณ
<1%
>16
$12,483 ปริมาณ
1%
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX has completed two Starship V3 test flights in 2026 so far—Flights 12 and 13 in May and July—both achieving transatmospheric trajectories and key milestones such as stage separation and payload deployment. Trader consensus favoring 5-6 total launches reflects expectations of gradual cadence growth amid ongoing FAA licensing reviews and iterative hardware refinements, including recent engine swaps and booster recovery attempts. Plans for Flight 14 by late August, with potential tower catch of the upper stage, represent the next near-term catalyst, though historical patterns of scrub rates and regulatory timelines constrain faster scaling. Higher outcome probabilities remain low due to the technical and approval hurdles still required before routine operations.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$492,887วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.SpaceX has completed two Starship V3 test flights in 2026 so far—Flights 12 and 13 in May and July—both achieving transatmospheric trajectories and key milestones such as stage separation and payload deployment. Trader consensus favoring 5-6 total launches reflects expectations of gradual cadence growth amid ongoing FAA licensing reviews and iterative hardware refinements, including recent engine swaps and booster recovery attempts. Plans for Flight 14 by late August, with potential tower catch of the upper stage, represent the next near-term catalyst, though historical patterns of scrub rates and regulatory timelines constrain faster scaling. Higher outcome probabilities remain low due to the technical and approval hurdles still required before routine operations.
This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX Starship launches successfully reaching an altitude of 62 miles above sea level between January 1, 2026, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A successful launch is defined as the Starship taking off from its launchpad and reaching a minimum altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.
The primary resolution source for this market will be SpaceX’s official video feed of the launches (e.g., via SpaceX YouTube Channel), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$492,887วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 11, 2025, 7:39 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...SpaceX has completed two Starship V3 test flights in 2026 so far—Flights 12 and 13 in May and July—both achieving transatmospheric trajectories and key milestones such as stage separation and payload deployment. Trader consensus favoring 5-6 total launches reflects expectations of gradual cadence growth amid ongoing FAA licensing reviews and iterative hardware refinements, including recent engine swaps and booster recovery attempts. Plans for Flight 14 by late August, with potential tower catch of the upper stage, represent the next near-term catalyst, though historical patterns of scrub rates and regulatory timelines constrain faster scaling. Higher outcome probabilities remain low due to the technical and approval hurdles still required before routine operations.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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