Traders assign a 73% implied probability to "No" on a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because historical records and current monitoring show such events—defined by strict thresholds like extreme magnitude, widespread impact, or specific criteria—remain statistically infrequent even amid routine activity. Recent 2026 developments, including the magnitude 7.4 Colombia earthquake, multiple flash floods, and ongoing wildfires in Washington and Europe, have not triggered resolution, consistent with USGS and NHC data on typical seismic and atmospheric patterns. Model consensus from NOAA and similar agencies indicates no immediate shift toward higher-risk conditions like strong El Niño amplification or clustered mega-events through year-end, reinforcing trader caution about tail-risk probabilities in the remaining months.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
27% โอกาส
$240,264 ปริมาณ
$240,264 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
27% โอกาส
$240,264 ปริมาณ
$240,264 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 73% implied probability to "No" on a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because historical records and current monitoring show such events—defined by strict thresholds like extreme magnitude, widespread impact, or specific criteria—remain statistically infrequent even amid routine activity. Recent 2026 developments, including the magnitude 7.4 Colombia earthquake, multiple flash floods, and ongoing wildfires in Washington and Europe, have not triggered resolution, consistent with USGS and NHC data on typical seismic and atmospheric patterns. Model consensus from NOAA and similar agencies indicates no immediate shift toward higher-risk conditions like strong El Niño amplification or clustered mega-events through year-end, reinforcing trader caution about tail-risk probabilities in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$240,264วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Traders assign a 73% implied probability to "No" on a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because historical records and current monitoring show such events—defined by strict thresholds like extreme magnitude, widespread impact, or specific criteria—remain statistically infrequent even amid routine activity. Recent 2026 developments, including the magnitude 7.4 Colombia earthquake, multiple flash floods, and ongoing wildfires in Washington and Europe, have not triggered resolution, consistent with USGS and NHC data on typical seismic and atmospheric patterns. Model consensus from NOAA and similar agencies indicates no immediate shift toward higher-risk conditions like strong El Niño amplification or clustered mega-events through year-end, reinforcing trader caution about tail-risk probabilities in the remaining months.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$240,264วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 73% implied probability to "No" on a qualifying natural disaster in 2026 because historical records and current monitoring show such events—defined by strict thresholds like extreme magnitude, widespread impact, or specific criteria—remain statistically infrequent even amid routine activity. Recent 2026 developments, including the magnitude 7.4 Colombia earthquake, multiple flash floods, and ongoing wildfires in Washington and Europe, have not triggered resolution, consistent with USGS and NHC data on typical seismic and atmospheric patterns. Model consensus from NOAA and similar agencies indicates no immediate shift toward higher-risk conditions like strong El Niño amplification or clustered mega-events through year-end, reinforcing trader caution about tail-risk probabilities in the remaining months.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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