Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of qualifying events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale (NOAA/NHC), no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS largest: M7.4 Indonesia, April), no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption despite Mayon Volcano's pyroclastic flows (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike (NASA CNEOS). Colorado State University's April forecast predicts below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity—13 named storms, 2 major hurricanes—amid ENSO neutral conditions post-La Niña. Peak risk remains in June-November monitoring, with weekly agency updates on seismic, volcanic, and fireball data potentially shifting odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$217,917 ปริมาณ
$217,917 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$217,917 ปริมาณ
$217,917 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of qualifying events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale (NOAA/NHC), no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS largest: M7.4 Indonesia, April), no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption despite Mayon Volcano's pyroclastic flows (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike (NASA CNEOS). Colorado State University's April forecast predicts below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity—13 named storms, 2 major hurricanes—amid ENSO neutral conditions post-La Niña. Peak risk remains in June-November monitoring, with weekly agency updates on seismic, volcanic, and fireball data potentially shifting odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$217,917วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of qualifying events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale (NOAA/NHC), no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS largest: M7.4 Indonesia, April), no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption despite Mayon Volcano's pyroclastic flows (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike (NASA CNEOS). Colorado State University's April forecast predicts below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity—13 named storms, 2 major hurricanes—amid ENSO neutral conditions post-La Niña. Peak risk remains in June-November monitoring, with weekly agency updates on seismic, volcanic, and fireball data potentially shifting odds.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$217,917วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 72.5% implied probability to "No" for a natural disaster in 2026, reflecting the absence of qualifying events through mid-May per authoritative sources: no Category 5 hurricane U.S. landfall on the Saffir-Simpson scale (NOAA/NHC), no magnitude 8.5+ earthquake (USGS largest: M7.4 Indonesia, April), no VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption despite Mayon Volcano's pyroclastic flows (Smithsonian Global Volcanism Program), and no 10-kiloton+ meteor strike (NASA CNEOS). Colorado State University's April forecast predicts below-normal Atlantic hurricane activity—13 named storms, 2 major hurricanes—amid ENSO neutral conditions post-La Niña. Peak risk remains in June-November monitoring, with weekly agency updates on seismic, volcanic, and fireball data potentially shifting odds.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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