The overwhelming market consensus against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 stems from fundamental geophysical limits and the complete absence of such events in the instrumental record. The largest reliably measured quake reached 9.5 on the moment magnitude scale during the 1960 Chile event, and USGS analyses indicate that Earth's crust lacks sufficient stored elastic strain energy along known fault systems to produce a 10.0 release in the near term. From mid-2026 onward, the remaining window is short, and global seismic monitoring shows no precursors or unusual strain accumulation on that scale. While a previously undetected mega-thrust or measurement revision could theoretically shift odds, current data from worldwide networks make this outcome highly improbable within the timeframe.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว10.0 หรือสูงกว่าแผ่นดินไหวก่อนปี 2027?
10.0 หรือสูงกว่าแผ่นดินไหวก่อนปี 2027?
<1% โอกาส
$792,663 ปริมาณ
$792,663 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
<1% โอกาส
$792,663 ปริมาณ
$792,663 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The overwhelming market consensus against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 stems from fundamental geophysical limits and the complete absence of such events in the instrumental record. The largest reliably measured quake reached 9.5 on the moment magnitude scale during the 1960 Chile event, and USGS analyses indicate that Earth's crust lacks sufficient stored elastic strain energy along known fault systems to produce a 10.0 release in the near term. From mid-2026 onward, the remaining window is short, and global seismic monitoring shows no precursors or unusual strain accumulation on that scale. While a previously undetected mega-thrust or measurement revision could theoretically shift odds, current data from worldwide networks make this outcome highly improbable within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$792,663วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The overwhelming market consensus against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 stems from fundamental geophysical limits and the complete absence of such events in the instrumental record. The largest reliably measured quake reached 9.5 on the moment magnitude scale during the 1960 Chile event, and USGS analyses indicate that Earth's crust lacks sufficient stored elastic strain energy along known fault systems to produce a 10.0 release in the near term. From mid-2026 onward, the remaining window is short, and global seismic monitoring shows no precursors or unusual strain accumulation on that scale. While a previously undetected mega-thrust or measurement revision could theoretically shift odds, current data from worldwide networks make this outcome highly improbable within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$792,663วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The overwhelming market consensus against a magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquake before 2027 stems from fundamental geophysical limits and the complete absence of such events in the instrumental record. The largest reliably measured quake reached 9.5 on the moment magnitude scale during the 1960 Chile event, and USGS analyses indicate that Earth's crust lacks sufficient stored elastic strain energy along known fault systems to produce a 10.0 release in the near term. From mid-2026 onward, the remaining window is short, and global seismic monitoring shows no precursors or unusual strain accumulation on that scale. While a previously undetected mega-thrust or measurement revision could theoretically shift odds, current data from worldwide networks make this outcome highly improbable within the timeframe.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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