USGS data establish that magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault system on Earth is long enough to release the required energy, with a 10.0 event theoretically needing a rupture spanning roughly 14,000 km. The instrumental record confirms a practical upper bound at 9.5, reached only once in the 1960 Valdivia quake, followed by events such as the 9.2 Alaska 1964 and 9.1 Tōhoku 2011 shocks. Ongoing global monitoring through mid-2026 shows typical M7–8 activity without any trend toward extreme multi-segment failure. With fewer than five months until 2027, the near-certain market odds reflect this geophysical limit; only an unforeseen revision to magnitude scaling relationships or detection of an unknown planetary-scale fault could alter the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว10.0 หรือสูงกว่าแผ่นดินไหวก่อนปี 2027?
10.0 หรือสูงกว่าแผ่นดินไหวก่อนปี 2027?
<1% โอกาส
$789,825 ปริมาณ
$789,825 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
<1% โอกาส
$789,825 ปริมาณ
$789,825 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS data establish that magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault system on Earth is long enough to release the required energy, with a 10.0 event theoretically needing a rupture spanning roughly 14,000 km. The instrumental record confirms a practical upper bound at 9.5, reached only once in the 1960 Valdivia quake, followed by events such as the 9.2 Alaska 1964 and 9.1 Tōhoku 2011 shocks. Ongoing global monitoring through mid-2026 shows typical M7–8 activity without any trend toward extreme multi-segment failure. With fewer than five months until 2027, the near-certain market odds reflect this geophysical limit; only an unforeseen revision to magnitude scaling relationships or detection of an unknown planetary-scale fault could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$789,825วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.USGS data establish that magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault system on Earth is long enough to release the required energy, with a 10.0 event theoretically needing a rupture spanning roughly 14,000 km. The instrumental record confirms a practical upper bound at 9.5, reached only once in the 1960 Valdivia quake, followed by events such as the 9.2 Alaska 1964 and 9.1 Tōhoku 2011 shocks. Ongoing global monitoring through mid-2026 shows typical M7–8 activity without any trend toward extreme multi-segment failure. With fewer than five months until 2027, the near-certain market odds reflect this geophysical limit; only an unforeseen revision to magnitude scaling relationships or detection of an unknown planetary-scale fault could alter the outcome.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$789,825วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 8, 2025, 5:29 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...USGS data establish that magnitude 10.0 or larger earthquakes cannot occur because no known fault system on Earth is long enough to release the required energy, with a 10.0 event theoretically needing a rupture spanning roughly 14,000 km. The instrumental record confirms a practical upper bound at 9.5, reached only once in the 1960 Valdivia quake, followed by events such as the 9.2 Alaska 1964 and 9.1 Tōhoku 2011 shocks. Ongoing global monitoring through mid-2026 shows typical M7–8 activity without any trend toward extreme multi-segment failure. With fewer than five months until 2027, the near-certain market odds reflect this geophysical limit; only an unforeseen revision to magnitude scaling relationships or detection of an unknown planetary-scale fault could alter the outcome.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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