The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook from Colorado State University, forecasting a below-normal season with only two major hurricanes and reduced U.S. landfall odds for storms of Category 3 or higher, anchors trader consensus against any Category 5 landfall before 2027. Expected transition to El Niño conditions is projected to elevate vertical wind shear across the main development region, limiting both genesis and rapid intensification needed for Saffir-Simpson Category 5 winds exceeding 157 mph at landfall. Historical precedent reinforces the low implied probability: only four such events have struck the continental United States since 1851. With the official season still weeks away and no active systems, attention now turns to NOAA’s May 21 seasonal outlook for further refinement of steering patterns and intensity guidance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$135,286 ปริมาณ
$135,286 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$135,286 ปริมาณ
$135,286 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook from Colorado State University, forecasting a below-normal season with only two major hurricanes and reduced U.S. landfall odds for storms of Category 3 or higher, anchors trader consensus against any Category 5 landfall before 2027. Expected transition to El Niño conditions is projected to elevate vertical wind shear across the main development region, limiting both genesis and rapid intensification needed for Saffir-Simpson Category 5 winds exceeding 157 mph at landfall. Historical precedent reinforces the low implied probability: only four such events have struck the continental United States since 1851. With the official season still weeks away and no active systems, attention now turns to NOAA’s May 21 seasonal outlook for further refinement of steering patterns and intensity guidance.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$135,286วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook from Colorado State University, forecasting a below-normal season with only two major hurricanes and reduced U.S. landfall odds for storms of Category 3 or higher, anchors trader consensus against any Category 5 landfall before 2027. Expected transition to El Niño conditions is projected to elevate vertical wind shear across the main development region, limiting both genesis and rapid intensification needed for Saffir-Simpson Category 5 winds exceeding 157 mph at landfall. Historical precedent reinforces the low implied probability: only four such events have struck the continental United States since 1851. With the official season still weeks away and no active systems, attention now turns to NOAA’s May 21 seasonal outlook for further refinement of steering patterns and intensity guidance.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$135,286วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook from Colorado State University, forecasting a below-normal season with only two major hurricanes and reduced U.S. landfall odds for storms of Category 3 or higher, anchors trader consensus against any Category 5 landfall before 2027. Expected transition to El Niño conditions is projected to elevate vertical wind shear across the main development region, limiting both genesis and rapid intensification needed for Saffir-Simpson Category 5 winds exceeding 157 mph at landfall. Historical precedent reinforces the low implied probability: only four such events have struck the continental United States since 1851. With the official season still weeks away and no active systems, attention now turns to NOAA’s May 21 seasonal outlook for further refinement of steering patterns and intensity guidance.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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