NOAA’s updated August 2026 outlook for a below-normal Atlantic season—forecasting just 0–2 major hurricanes amid El Niño suppression, cooler sea-surface patterns, and only three weak tropical storms formed to date—drives the strong market-implied odds against a U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. With the peak window approaching and historical precedent showing just five confirmed U.S. Category 5 strikes since 1851 (most recently Michael in 2018), the combination of reduced overall activity and the extreme rarity of sustained 157+ mph winds reaching the coastline reinforces trader consensus. Forecasters note model consensus favoring continued suppression through November, with any late intensification unlikely to produce the specific intensity and steering needed for a qualifying landfall.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
12% โอกาส
$139,387 ปริมาณ
$139,387 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
12% โอกาส
$139,387 ปริมาณ
$139,387 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s updated August 2026 outlook for a below-normal Atlantic season—forecasting just 0–2 major hurricanes amid El Niño suppression, cooler sea-surface patterns, and only three weak tropical storms formed to date—drives the strong market-implied odds against a U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. With the peak window approaching and historical precedent showing just five confirmed U.S. Category 5 strikes since 1851 (most recently Michael in 2018), the combination of reduced overall activity and the extreme rarity of sustained 157+ mph winds reaching the coastline reinforces trader consensus. Forecasters note model consensus favoring continued suppression through November, with any late intensification unlikely to produce the specific intensity and steering needed for a qualifying landfall.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$139,387วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.NOAA’s updated August 2026 outlook for a below-normal Atlantic season—forecasting just 0–2 major hurricanes amid El Niño suppression, cooler sea-surface patterns, and only three weak tropical storms formed to date—drives the strong market-implied odds against a U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. With the peak window approaching and historical precedent showing just five confirmed U.S. Category 5 strikes since 1851 (most recently Michael in 2018), the combination of reduced overall activity and the extreme rarity of sustained 157+ mph winds reaching the coastline reinforces trader consensus. Forecasters note model consensus favoring continued suppression through November, with any late intensification unlikely to produce the specific intensity and steering needed for a qualifying landfall.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$139,387วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s updated August 2026 outlook for a below-normal Atlantic season—forecasting just 0–2 major hurricanes amid El Niño suppression, cooler sea-surface patterns, and only three weak tropical storms formed to date—drives the strong market-implied odds against a U.S. Category 5 landfall before 2027. With the peak window approaching and historical precedent showing just five confirmed U.S. Category 5 strikes since 1851 (most recently Michael in 2018), the combination of reduced overall activity and the extreme rarity of sustained 157+ mph winds reaching the coastline reinforces trader consensus. Forecasters note model consensus favoring continued suppression through November, with any late intensification unlikely to produce the specific intensity and steering needed for a qualifying landfall.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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