Anticipated El Niño conditions are suppressing the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, with Colorado State University forecasting below-average activity and only a 32 percent probability of at least one major hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coastline. This reduced risk stems from expected increases in vertical wind shear that hinder storm intensification to Category 4 levels on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The 2025 season produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all, underscoring recent variability in steering patterns. Traders weigh these model consensus projections and climatological baselines when assigning the current implied probability to no Category 4 landfall before 2027, with NOAA set to release its official seasonal outlook later this month.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
$327,420 ปริมาณ
$327,420 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
$327,420 ปริมาณ
$327,420 ปริมาณ
Dec 31, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Anticipated El Niño conditions are suppressing the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, with Colorado State University forecasting below-average activity and only a 32 percent probability of at least one major hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coastline. This reduced risk stems from expected increases in vertical wind shear that hinder storm intensification to Category 4 levels on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The 2025 season produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all, underscoring recent variability in steering patterns. Traders weigh these model consensus projections and climatological baselines when assigning the current implied probability to no Category 4 landfall before 2027, with NOAA set to release its official seasonal outlook later this month.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$327,420วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Anticipated El Niño conditions are suppressing the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, with Colorado State University forecasting below-average activity and only a 32 percent probability of at least one major hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coastline. This reduced risk stems from expected increases in vertical wind shear that hinder storm intensification to Category 4 levels on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The 2025 season produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all, underscoring recent variability in steering patterns. Traders weigh these model consensus projections and climatological baselines when assigning the current implied probability to no Category 4 landfall before 2027, with NOAA set to release its official seasonal outlook later this month.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$327,420วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Anticipated El Niño conditions are suppressing the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season outlook, with Colorado State University forecasting below-average activity and only a 32 percent probability of at least one major hurricane landfall along the continental U.S. coastline. This reduced risk stems from expected increases in vertical wind shear that hinder storm intensification to Category 4 levels on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The 2025 season produced no U.S. hurricane landfalls at all, underscoring recent variability in steering patterns. Traders weigh these model consensus projections and climatological baselines when assigning the current implied probability to no Category 4 landfall before 2027, with NOAA set to release its official seasonal outlook later this month.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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