Below-normal Atlantic activity driven by El Niño-enhanced vertical wind shear and suppressed sea-surface temperatures continues to anchor trader consensus at 84.5% for no U.S. Category 4 landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August 6 update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, projecting just 0–2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes through November, while Colorado State University and other models place the probability of at least one major U.S. landfall at 17–24%—well below the long-term average near 43%. With only two named storms recorded to date and no hurricanes formed, current NHC outlooks show limited near-term development potential. These conditions align with historical El Niño analogs that rarely produce intense landfalls.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
16% โอกาส
$340,578 ปริมาณ
$340,578 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
16% โอกาส
$340,578 ปริมาณ
$340,578 ปริมาณ
Dec 30, 2026
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Below-normal Atlantic activity driven by El Niño-enhanced vertical wind shear and suppressed sea-surface temperatures continues to anchor trader consensus at 84.5% for no U.S. Category 4 landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August 6 update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, projecting just 0–2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes through November, while Colorado State University and other models place the probability of at least one major U.S. landfall at 17–24%—well below the long-term average near 43%. With only two named storms recorded to date and no hurricanes formed, current NHC outlooks show limited near-term development potential. These conditions align with historical El Niño analogs that rarely produce intense landfalls.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$340,578วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Below-normal Atlantic activity driven by El Niño-enhanced vertical wind shear and suppressed sea-surface temperatures continues to anchor trader consensus at 84.5% for no U.S. Category 4 landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August 6 update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, projecting just 0–2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes through November, while Colorado State University and other models place the probability of at least one major U.S. landfall at 17–24%—well below the long-term average near 43%. With only two named storms recorded to date and no hurricanes formed, current NHC outlooks show limited near-term development potential. These conditions align with historical El Niño analogs that rarely produce intense landfalls.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$340,578วันสิ้นสุด
Dec 31, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Below-normal Atlantic activity driven by El Niño-enhanced vertical wind shear and suppressed sea-surface temperatures continues to anchor trader consensus at 84.5% for no U.S. Category 4 landfall before 2027. NOAA’s August 6 update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, projecting just 0–2 major (Category 3+) hurricanes through November, while Colorado State University and other models place the probability of at least one major U.S. landfall at 17–24%—well below the long-term average near 43%. With only two named storms recorded to date and no hurricanes formed, current NHC outlooks show limited near-term development potential. These conditions align with historical El Niño analogs that rarely produce intense landfalls.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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