The 2026 Arctic winter sea ice maximum extent reached a record-tying low of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15, per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) measurements, 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average and matching 2025's anomaly—the second consecutive year at this benchmark. This thin, young ice cover persists into mid-May at near-record lows for the season, priming the melt season for accelerated loss amid Arctic amplification and above-average air temperatures. Trader consensus reflects 58% implied probability for a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers, nearing the 2012 record of 3.39 million, though model ensembles like those from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center highlight uncertainty from summer weather patterns and ocean heat. NSIDC daily updates will track melt progression through September.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้วMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
<4m sq km 58%
4.0-4.2m sq km 12.9%
4.2-4.4m sq km 9.1%
4.4-4.6m sq km 7.7%
$48,262 ปริมาณ
$48,262 ปริมาณ
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
58%
4.0-4.2m sq km
13%
4.2-4.4m sq km
9%
4.4-4.6m sq km
8%
4.6-4.8m sq km
5%
4.8-5m sq km
2%
5m+ sq km
4%
<4m sq km 58%
4.0-4.2m sq km 12.9%
4.2-4.4m sq km 9.1%
4.4-4.6m sq km 7.7%
$48,262 ปริมาณ
$48,262 ปริมาณ
Oct 1, 2026
<4m sq km
$25,069 ปริมาณ
58%
4.0-4.2m sq km
$3,335 ปริมาณ
13%
4.2-4.4m sq km
$1,254 ปริมาณ
9%
4.4-4.6m sq km
$1,335 ปริมาณ
8%
4.6-4.8m sq km
$2,874 ปริมาณ
5%
4.8-5m sq km
$1,199 ปริมาณ
2%
5m+ sq km
$13,195 ปริมาณ
4%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The 2026 Arctic winter sea ice maximum extent reached a record-tying low of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15, per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) measurements, 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average and matching 2025's anomaly—the second consecutive year at this benchmark. This thin, young ice cover persists into mid-May at near-record lows for the season, priming the melt season for accelerated loss amid Arctic amplification and above-average air temperatures. Trader consensus reflects 58% implied probability for a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers, nearing the 2012 record of 3.39 million, though model ensembles like those from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center highlight uncertainty from summer weather patterns and ocean heat. NSIDC daily updates will track melt progression through September.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$48,262วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.The 2026 Arctic winter sea ice maximum extent reached a record-tying low of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15, per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) measurements, 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average and matching 2025's anomaly—the second consecutive year at this benchmark. This thin, young ice cover persists into mid-May at near-record lows for the season, priming the melt season for accelerated loss amid Arctic amplification and above-average air temperatures. Trader consensus reflects 58% implied probability for a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers, nearing the 2012 record of 3.39 million, though model ensembles like those from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center highlight uncertainty from summer weather patterns and ocean heat. NSIDC daily updates will track melt progression through September.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
ปริมาณการซื้อขาย
$48,262วันสิ้นสุด
Oct 1, 2026ตลาดเปิดเมื่อ
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The 2026 Arctic winter sea ice maximum extent reached a record-tying low of 14.29 million square kilometers on March 15, per National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) measurements, 1.36 million square kilometers below the 1981-2010 average and matching 2025's anomaly—the second consecutive year at this benchmark. This thin, young ice cover persists into mid-May at near-record lows for the season, priming the melt season for accelerated loss amid Arctic amplification and above-average air temperatures. Trader consensus reflects 58% implied probability for a summer minimum below 4 million square kilometers, nearing the 2012 record of 3.39 million, though model ensembles like those from NOAA's Climate Prediction Center highlight uncertainty from summer weather patterns and ocean heat. NSIDC daily updates will track melt progression through September.
สรุปจาก AI ทดลองที่อ้างอิงข้อมูลจาก Polymarket ไม่ใช่คำแนะนำในการเทรดและไม่มีผลต่อการตัดสินตลาดนี้ · อัปเดตแล้ว
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